The AI forecaster scoreboard & promise tracker
Every prediction and promise we track. Filter by verdict, type or topic.
209 claims
“Mid-2028 is earlier than Daniel’s current median prediction for full coding automation (2029), but the 2-year takeoff to superintelligence is slower than his median takeoff speed o…”
“said in an interview with the Financial Times that he predicts most, if not every, task in white-collar fields will be automated by AI within the next year or year and a half.”
“Isomorphic Labs, which uses artificial intelligence for drug discovery, expects to have its first clinical trials by the end of 2026, founder and CEO Demis Hassabis said on Tuesday…”
“With my parameters, it predicts a median of 2030 for full coding automation”
“2025 will be known as the year of the peak bubble , and also the moment at which Wall Street began to lose confidence in generative AI.”
“No country will take a decisive lead in the GenAI “race” .”
“In the midterms, AI will be an election issue for first time.”
“Human domestic robots like Optimus and Figure will be all demo and very little product.”
“We won’t get to AGI in 2026 (or 7).”
“I think like 5 to 20.”
“very roughly, something pretty clearly superhuman in most respects by end of 2027 + also very big stuff before then”
“The companies seem to think strong AGI is just a few years away, and while I'm not as bullish as they are, I do expect it to happen in the next 5-10 years.”
“Experts predict a 10x increase (from 3% to ~30%) in AI-engaged papers in Physics, 10 Materials Science, 11 and Medicine, 12 between 2022 and 2030.”
“That rises to 7% of all electricity consumption in 2030”
“The median expert predicts that 4% of U.S. electricity consumption will be used for training and deploying AI systems in 2027.”
“Experts estimate a 10% chance that AI will solve or substantially assist in solving a Millennium Prize Problem by 2027, 2 up to 20% by 2030”
“Experts estimate a 10% chance that AI will solve or substantially assist in solving a Millennium Prize Problem by 2027”
“In 2028 and beyond, we are pretty confident we will have systems that can make more significant discoveries”
“In 2026, we expect AI to be capable of making very small discoveries.”
“internally, OpenAI is tracking toward achieving an intern-level research assistant by September 2026 and a fully automated “legitimate AI researcher” by 2028”
“We do expect to be operating robotaxi in, I think, about eight to ten metro areas by the end of the year. It depends on various regulatory approvals.”
“I feel like the problems are tractable, they’re surmountable, but they’re still difficult. If I just average it out, it just feels like a decade to me.”
“We’re bringing our fully autonomous ride-hailing service across the pond, where we intend to offer rides – with no human behind the wheel – in 2026.”
“By the end of 2027, models will frequently outperform experts on many tasks.”
“At least one model will match the performance of human experts across many industries before the end of 2026.”
“No. We’re not there yet. But the real AI is coming. I think we’ve got about 5 years.”
“By 2030, on current trends, AI will be able to autonomously fix issues, implement features, and solve difficult (but well-defined) scientific programming problems.”
“On current trends, the clusters used for training frontier AI would cost over $100B by 2030. Such clusters could support training runs of about 10^29 FLOP”
“we expect that few if any of the drugs approved for sale by 2030 will have benefited from today’s AI tools, let alone those of 2030.”
“By 2030, we predict that many scientific domains will have AI assistants comparable to coding assistants for software engineers today.”
“In five years, we’re looking at levels of unemployment we’ve never seen before”
“said artificial general intelligence — systems as capable as humans across domains — is likely to arrive by 2027.”
“We're pretty unlikely (25%?) to see 80% reliability at 1 month tasks by the start of 2028.”
“I expect doubling times of around 170 days on METR's task suite (or similar tasks) [3] over the next 2 years or so which implies we'll be hitting 2 week 50% reliability horizon len…”
“I now would put ~15% probability by the start of 2029 and a 45% chance by the start of 2033.”
“I now would put ~15% probability by the start of 2029 and a 45% chance by the start of 2033.”
“But I guess next year is I'd say confidently next year. I'm not sure when next year, but confidently next year, people would be able to add or subtract their car to the Tesla, Inc.…”
“We will have prototypes of that in about three months, and it's subtooling in production. We will start production on that at the beginning of next year.”
“I think it will be available for unsupervised personal use by the end of this year in certain geographies.”
“I think we will probably have autonomous ride-hailing in probably half the population of the US by the end of the year. That's at least our goal, subject to regulatory approvals.”
“Gabriel says Meta plans to bring two gigawatts of data center capacity online by 2030 with Hyperion, but that it would scale to five gigawatts in several years.”
“Over 40% of agentic AI projects will be canceled by the end of 2027, due to escalating costs, unclear business value or inadequate risk controls”
“Zoox is gearing up to start public rides in Las Vegas later this year, with San Francisco to follow.”
“2027 may see the arrival of robots that can do tasks in the real world.”
“2026 will likely see the arrival of systems that can figure out novel insights.”
“I don’t think we’ll quite get there by 2030, so my sense is it’s slightly after that”
“In the next five to 10 years, there’s maybe a 50 percent chance that we'll have what we define as AGI.”
“AI learns on the job as easily, organically, seamlessly, and quickly as a human, for any white collar work.”
“AI can do taxes end-to-end for my small business as well as a competent general manager could in a week: including chasing down all the receipts on different websites, finding all…”
“AI could wipe out half of all entry-level white-collar jobs — and spike unemployment to 10-20% in the next one to five years, Amodei told us in an interview from his San Francisco…”
“A 1GW Stargate UAE cluster in Abu Dhabi with 200MW expected to go live in 2026”
“I don't expect the US labor force participation rate to fall by more than 50% from its current level by 2029, or for US GDP growth to surpass 15% for any year in 2025-2029.”
“I would guess that sometime in the next 12 to 18 months, we'll reach the point where most of the code that's going toward these efforts is written by AI.”
“It projects that electricity demand from data centres worldwide is set to more than double by 2030 to around 945 terawatt-hours (TWh), slightly more than the entire electricity con…”
“Many people fear that the next wave of AIs will come for their jobs; there is a 10,000 person anti-AI protest in DC.”
“The stock market has gone up 30% in 2026, led by OpenBrain, Nvidia, and whichever companies have most successfully integrated AI assistants.”
“I still think full automation of remote work in 10 years is plausible, because it’s what we would predict if we straightforwardly extrapolate current rates of revenue growth and as…”
“we are excited to release a powerful new open-weight language model with reasoning in the coming months”
“In the US the players that will determine whether self driving cars are successful or abandoned are #1 Waymo (Google) and #2 Zoox (Amazon). No one else matters.”
“It’s official: Waymo One, the world’s leading fully autonomous ride-hailing service, will be ready for riders in the nation’s capital on the Waymo One app in 2026.”
“Extrapolating this trend predicts that, in under a decade, we will see AI agents that can independently complete a large fraction of software tasks that currently take humans days…”
“Huang also announced Rubin Ultra, which will follow in the second half of 2027.”
“The centerpiece announcement was Vera Rubin, first teased at Computex 2024 and now scheduled for release in the second half of 2026.”
“I bet @littmath that in 5 years AI will be able to produce Annals-quality Number Theory papers at an inference budget at or below $100k/paper, at 3:1 odds in my favor.”
“I think we’ll be there in three to six months—where AI is writing 90 percent of the code.”
“It’s going to take us longer than we thought to deliver on these features and we anticipate rolling them out in the coming year.”
“we expect powerful AI systems will emerge in late 2026 or early 2027.”
“Altman didn’t say exactly when GPT-4.5 and GPT-5 might be released, but he did give a vague estimate of “weeks / months.””
“p(AGI by eoy 2028) = 75%”
“p(AGI by eoy 2026) = 40%”
“p(AGI by eoy 2025) = 20%”
“with AI, over the next decade, that will become free, commonplace — great medical advice, great tutoring”
“Those Optimus in use at the Tesla factories for production design 1 will inform how will we change for production design 2, which we expect to launch next year.”
“Will we succeed in building 10,000 exactly by the end of December this year? Probably not, but will we succeed in making several thousand? Yes, I think we will.”
“We’re going to be launching unsupervised full self-driving as a paid service in Austin in June.”
“Within 180 days of this order, the Assistant to the President for Science and Technology (APST), the Special Advisor for AI and Crypto, and the Assistant to the President for Natio…”
“I think the shelf life of the current [LLM] paradigm is fairly short, probably three to five years”
“The Stargate Project is a new company which intends to invest $500 billion over the next four years building new AI infrastructure for OpenAI in the United States.”
“Expand the capacity of the AI Research Resource ( AIRR ) by at least 20x by 2030 – starting within 6 months.”
“Of course this now means a 50% chance of AGI in the next 3 years!”
“Probably in 2025, we at Meta, as well as the other companies that are basically working on this, are going to have an AI that can effectively be a sort of mid-level engineer that y…”
“AGI will probably get developed during this president's term, and getting that right seems really important.”
“We believe that, in 2025, we may see the first AI agents “join the workforce” and materially change the output of companies.”
“In FY 2025, Microsoft is on track to invest approximately $80 billion to build out AI-enabled datacenters”
“Copyright lawsuits over generative AI will continue throughout the year.”
“A major lab will formally claim it has achieved AGI (30 percent)”
“Hassabis had said last year the company would have AI-designed drugs in clinical trials by the end of 2025.”
“Hallucinations (which should really be called confabulations) will continue to haunt generative AI.”
“Humanoid robotics will see a lot of hype, but nobody will release anything to remotely as capable as Rosie the Robot .”
“Truly driverless cars, in which no human is required to attend to traffic, will continue to see usage limited to a modest number of cities, mainly in the West, mainly in good weath…”
“AI “Agents” will be endlessly hyped throughout 2025 but far from reliable, except possibly in very narrow use cases.”
“Less than 10% of the work force will be replaced by AI. Probably less than 5%.”
“Few if any radiologists will be replaced by AI (contra Hinton’s infamous 2016 prediction).”
“No single system will solve more than 4 of the AI 2027 Marcus-Brundage tasks by the end of 2025.”
“We will not see artificial general intelligence this year, despite claims by Elon Musk to the contrary.”
“If there exist AI systems that can perform 8 of the 10 tasks below by the end of 2027, as determined by our panel of judges, Gary will donate $2,000 to a charity of Miles’ choice”
“If there exist AI systems that can perform 8 of the 10 tasks below by the end of 2027, as determined by our panel of judges, Gary will donate $2,000 to a charity of Miles’ choice;…”
“most of the experts in the field think that sometime, within probably the next 20 years, we’re going to develop AIs that are smarter than people.”
“said there was a “10% to 20%” chance that AI would lead to human extinction within the next three decades.”
“i think it’s likely (p=.6) that an o-series model solves a millennium prize math problem in 2025”
“Altman said the company plans to launch that model "around the end of January," with o3 following "shortly after that."”
“This April, Apple Intelligence features will start to roll out to iPhone and iPad users in the EU.”
“Additional languages, including Chinese, English (India), English (Singapore), French, German, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese, Spanish, and Vietnamese will be coming through…”
“Through our new fleet partnership with Moove , a global leader in innovative mobility solutions, we’ll work to open our doors to riders in 2026, offering our ride-hailing service v…”
“AMD also shared new details on next-gen AMD Instinct MI350 series accelerators expected to launch in the second half of 2025”
“Looking ahead, we see the data center AI accelerator market growing to $500 billion by 2028.”
“I think it could come as early as 2026, though there are also ways it could take much longer.”
“It is possible that we will have superintelligence in a few thousand days (!); it may take longer, but I’m confident we’ll get there.”
“Today, Waymo and Uber are announcing an expanded partnership to bring the Waymo One experience to Austin and Atlanta, only on the Uber app, beginning in early 2025.”
“Chapter III Section 4, Chapter V, Chapter VII and Chapter XII and Article 78 shall apply from 2 August 2025”
“Codes of practice shall be ready at the latest by 2 May 2025.”
“Grok 3 end of year after training on 100k H100s should be really something special”
“LLM hallucinations [where they create nonsensical or inaccurate outputs] will become much less of a problem, certainly by 2029”
“So 2029, both for human-level intelligence and for artificial general intelligence (AGI) – which is a little bit different.”
“Artificial intelligence that is 10,000 times smarter than humans will be here in 10 years, SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son said on Friday in a rare public appearance.”
“Son said this tech is likely to be one to 10 times smarter than humans and will arrive in the next three-to-five years, earlier than he had anticipated.”
“To complete the Claude 3.5 model family, we’ll be releasing Claude 3.5 Haiku and Claude 3.5 Opus later this year.”
“Labour will ensure the safe development and use of AI models by introducing binding regulation on the handful of companies developing the most powerful AI models”
“Sure. In five years, there will be more software engineers than there are today, not fewer.”
“ChatGPT will come to iOS 18, iPadOS 18, and macOS Sequoia later this year, powered by GPT-4o.”
“We’re on the path to individual training clusters costing $100s of billions by 2028—clusters requiring power equivalent to a small/medium US state and more expensive than the Inter…”
“I make the following claim: it is strikingly plausible that by 2027, models will be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer.”
“Prediction: AI will displace social drinking within 5 years”
“to demonstrate how they have achieved this by publishing a safety framework focused on severe risks by the upcoming AI Summit in France.”
“to demonstrate how they have achieved this by publishing a safety framework focused on severe risks by the upcoming AI Summit in France.”
“Now with Recall, in preview starting June 18, you can access virtually what you have seen or done on your PC in a way that feels like having photographic memory.”
“We aim to have this initial framework fully implemented by early 2025.”
“That means that this week, hundreds of millions of users will have access to AI Overviews, and we expect to bring them to over a billion people by the end of the year.”
“posted on the social-media platform X that the team is “working on releasing the AF3 model (incl weights) for academic use” within six months.”
“We’ll roll out a new version of Voice Mode with GPT‑4o in alpha within ChatGPT Plus in the coming weeks.”
“We now expect over $500 million in accelerated revenue in second half of 2024 and with increasing momentum into 2025 based on Gaudi 3's vastly superior TCO as well as our own expan…”
“Over the coming months, we’ll release multiple models with new capabilities including multimodality, the ability to converse in multiple languages, a much longer context window, an…”
“If you define AGI as smarter than the smartest human, I think it’s probably next year, within two years”
“My guess is we’ll have AI smarter than any one human probably around the end of next year”
“If we specified AGI to be something very specific, a set of tests where a software program can do very well — or maybe 8% better than most people — I believe we will get there with…”
“I do not believe human-level AI (artificial superintelligence, or the commonest sense of #AGI) is close at hand. AI has made breakthroughs, but the claim of AGI by 2030 is as laugh…”
“We are at least 3-5 years away from automating software engineering.”
“This week, @xAI will open source Grok”
“No robust solution to hallucinations”
“Goertzel suggested 2029 or 2030 could be the likeliest years when humanity will build the first AGI agent, but that it could happen as early as 2027.”
“The aggregate forecasts give at least a 50% chance of AI systems achieving several milestones by 2028, including autonomously constructing a payment processing site from scratch, c…”
“However, the chance of all human occupations becoming fully automatable was forecast to reach 10% by 2037, and 50% as late as 2116”
“If science continues undisrupted, the chance of unaided machines outperforming humans in every possible task was estimated at 10% by 2027, and 50% by 2047.”
“If science continues undisrupted, the chance of unaided machines outperforming humans in every possible task was estimated at 10% by 2027, and 50% by 2047.”
“Waymo will expand to a new city (80 percent)”
“OpenAI will release ChatGPT-5 by the end of November 2024 (75 percent)”
“we’ll make Gemini Ultra available to select customers, developers, partners and safety and responsibility experts for early experimentation and feedback before rolling it out to de…”
“In the next five years, this will change completely. You won’t have to use different apps for different tasks. You’ll simply tell your device, in everyday language, what you want t…”
“Within 270 days of the date of this order, to help ensure the development of safe, secure, and trustworthy AI systems, the Secretary of Commerce, acting through the Director of the…”
“Within 90 days of the date of this order, in coordination with the heads of agencies that the Director of NSF deems appropriate, launch a pilot program implementing the National AI…”
“Within 90 days of the date of this order, and at least annually thereafter, the head of each agency with relevant regulatory authority over critical infrastructure”
“Within 90 days of the date of this order, to ensure and verify the continuous availability of safe, reliable, and effective AI in accordance with the Defense Production Act”
“We are dedicating 20% of the compute we’ve secured to date over the next four years to solving the problem of superintelligence alignment.”
“There will be no programmers in five years.”
“GPT 2030 will likely be superhuman at various specific tasks, including coding, hacking, and math, and potentially protein design”
“we estimate the likelihood of transformative artificial general intelligence (AGI) by 2043 and find it to be <1%.”
“I could easily see 30% of that getting replaced by AI and automation over a five-year period.”
“they could drive a 7% (or almost $7 trillion) increase in global GDP and lift productivity growth by 1.5 percentage points over a 10-year period.”
“If the AI gets an A on at least 5 of out 6 of those exams using same grading scale as his students, then Bryan owes Matthew $500.”
“35. GPT Revenue (Hanson Wins Bet that GPT Revenue < $1B) 45% 0% 0.90 6”
“35. GPT Revenue (Hanson Wins Bet that GPT Revenue < $1B) 53.5% 0% 1.07 32”
“49. Largest Number of Parameters in a Machine Learning Model 150 trillion 10 trillion 2.74 7”
“49. Largest Number of Parameters in a Machine Learning Model 100 trillion 10 trillion 1.71 31”
“45. Maximum Compute Used in an AI Experiment 100,000 578,703.7 1.92 33”
“39. MATH Dataset Benchmark 71% 87.92% 1.38 30”
“40. “Massive Multitask Language Understanding” Benchmark 77.75% 88.7% 1.59 32”
“an outcome to which domain experts assigned only an 8.6% probability and superforecasters a mere 2.3% probability.”
“an outcome to which domain experts assigned only an 8.6% probability and superforecasters a mere 2.3% probability.”
“I'll stand by a >16% probability of the technical capability existing by end of 2025”
“I'd put 4% on "For the 2022, 2023, 2024, or 2025 IMO an AI built before the IMO is able to solve the single hardest problem"”
“Maybe I'll go 8% on "gets gold" instead of "solves hardest problem."”
“Apollo Go, Baidu’s robotaxi service, aims to be in 65 cities by 2025 and 100 cities by 2030, the firm’s co-founder and CEO Robin Li said on an analyst call Wednesday.”
“Motional’s next-generation robotaxis, the all-electric Hyundai IONIQ 5-based robotaxi, will be available on the Lyft app in Las Vegas, starting in 2023.”
“With Cruise, GM has a market-leading position in autonomous services with the potential to deliver $50 billion in revenue annually by the end of the decade.”
“We’re in a new chip shortage. Just when the fabs thought they had caught up to demand…”
“After years of tinkering and incremental progress, AIs can now play Diplomacy as well as human experts .”
“Will robots and AI bring a new revival comparable to the post-1995 digital revival? A reason for doubt is that a doubling of the U.S. stock of robots in the past decade failed to r…”
“Private Nonfarm business productivity growth will average over 1.8 percent per year from the first quarter (Q1) of 2020 to the last quarter of 2029 (Q4).”
“I remain confident that we will have the basic functionality for level five autonomy complete this year.”
“From our standpoint, if you fast forward a year, maybe a year and three months, but next year for sure, we’ll have over a million robotaxis on the road”
“all together in 15 years, that's going to displace about 40% of the jobs in the world.”
“We’ll add up to 20,000 I-PACEs to Waymo’s fleet in the next few years”
“7. AI risk as a field subjectively feels more/same/less widely accepted than today: 50%/40%/10%”
“6. MIRI still exists in 2023: 80%”
“AI beats a top human player at Starcraft: 70%”
“Average person can buy a self-driving car for less than $100,000: 30%”
“At least 5% of US truck drivers have been replaced by self-driving trucks: 10%”
“…in at least five of ten largest US cities: 30%”
“Average person can hail a self-driving car in at least one US city: 80%”
“A major city bans parking and cars with drivers from a non-trivial portion of a city so that driverless cars have free reign in that area. NET 2027 BY 2031”
“First dedicated lane where only cars in truly driverless mode are allowed on a public freeway. NET 2021”
“Such "taxi" services where the cars are also used with drivers at other times and with extended geography, in 10 major US cities NET 2025”
“Lab demo: NET 2025 Deployed systems: NET 2028”
“Dexterous robot hands generally available. NET 2030 BY 2040 (I hope!)”
“Expensive product: NET 2030 Affordable product: NET 2035 What is easy for humans is still very, very hard for robots.”
“A robot that can navigate around just about any US home, with its steps, its clutter, its narrow pathways between furniture, etc. Lab demo: NET 2026 Expensive product: NET 2030”
“A robot that can provide physical assistance to the elderly over multiple tasks (e.g., getting into and out of bed, washing, using the toilet, etc.) rather than just a point soluti…”
“Emergence of the generally agreed upon "next big thing" in AI beyond deep learning. NET 2023”
“Such "taxi" service as above in 50 of the 100 biggest US cities. NET 2028”
“Researchers predict AI will outperform humans in many activities in the next ten years, such as translating languages (by 2024), writing high-school essays (by 2026), driving a tru…”
“Researchers predict AI will outperform humans in many activities in the next ten years, such as translating languages (by 2024), writing high-school essays (by 2026), driving a tru…”
“Researchers predict AI will outperform humans in many activities in the next ten years, such as translating languages (by 2024), writing high-school essays (by 2026), driving a tru…”
“Researchers predict AI will outperform humans in many activities in the next ten years, such as translating languages (by 2024), writing high-school essays (by 2026), driving a tru…”
“Researchers predict AI will outperform humans in many activities in the next ten years, such as translating languages (by 2024), writing high-school essays (by 2026), driving a tru…”
“we’ll be able to do a demonstration drive of full autonomy all the way from LA to New York, from home in LA to let’s say dropping you off in Time Square in New York, and then havin…”
“Autonomous vehicle fleets will quickly become widespread and will account for the majority of Lyft rides within 5 years.”
“Ford today announces its intent to have a high-volume, fully autonomous SAE level 4-capable vehicle in commercial operation in 2021 in a ride-hailing or ride-sharing service.”
“People should stop training radiologists now. It’s just completely obvious that within five years, deep learning is going to do a lot better than radiologists”
“By 2029 no computer – or "machine intelligence" – will have passed the Turing Test.”
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