CorrectPrediction
30%: a major AI lab will formally claim AGI in 2025
“A major lab will formally claim it has achieved AGI (30 percent)”
Context: Vox Future Perfect, "25 predictions for 2025" (Dylan Matthews, Jan 2025).
How we judge it
Our interpretation: YES if in 2025 a major AI lab formally announces it has achieved AGI.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Verdict
- Correct ()
- Stated probability
- 30%
- Specificity
- 3 of 3 (precise and measurable)
- Score
- Brier 0.090 → 0.91 points
Evidence & grader’s note
No major lab claimed AGI in 2025. With p=0.3 on an event that did not happen, the Brier-based score is 0.91.
