SiPoly

The AI forecaster scoreboard & promise tracker

Superintelligence readiness

How close are we to the milestones people use when they talk about superintelligence? This page does not make that call itself. Each milestone below takes its status only from the SiPoly claims linked to it and their published verdicts, using the rule under “How we decide”. Where no tracked claim covers a milestone, it says so.

11 milestones: 4 reached, 3 partly, 1 not yet, 3 with only open claims, 0 with no tracked claims yet.

  1. Reached

    AI matches top human experts on hard tests

    An AI system performs at the level of top human experts on a hard, recognised test of expertise (for example gold-medal level at the International Mathematical Olympiad, or PhD-level expert questions).

    Latest evidence: · 8 linked claims

    Linked claims
  2. Partly

    AI agents complete multi-day tasks autonomously

    AI agents reliably complete tasks that take a skilled person several working days, without step-by-step human help. A full working day (8 hours) counts as partway.

    Latest evidence: · 4 linked claims

    Linked claims
  3. Not yet (only open claims)

    AI makes novel scientific discoveries

    AI systems produce new scientific or mathematical results that experts recognise as genuine discoveries, not just assistance.

    5 linked claims

    Linked claims
  4. Not yet (only open claims)

    Software engineering is fully automated

    AI systems can do essentially all the work of professional software engineers, end to end.

    3 linked claims

    Linked claims
  5. Partly

    AI automates AI research (recursive self-improvement)

    AI systems do essentially all of the research and engineering needed to build better AI, so that AI improves AI with little human input. An automated research assistant counts as partway.

    Latest evidence: · 8 linked claims

    Linked claims
  6. Not yet (only open claims)

    A frontier training run of 10^27 FLOP or more

    A single AI training run uses at least 10^27 floating-point operations.

    1 linked claim

    Linked claims
  7. Partly

    Humanoid robots in real deployment

    Humanoid robots do useful paid work outside demos and pilots, in real workplaces or homes, in more than token numbers. Building or starting production of humanoids counts as partway.

    Latest evidence: · 6 linked claims

    Linked claims
  8. Reached

    Driverless commercial fleets in several major cities

    Members of the public can pay for rides (or freight) in vehicles with no safety driver, as a commercial service, in several major cities.

    Latest evidence: · 8 linked claims

    Linked claims
  9. Reached

    Binding AI-specific law in a major economy

    A major economy has binding, AI-specific legal obligations in force (not only guidelines or voluntary commitments).

    Latest evidence: · 3 linked claims

    Linked claims
  10. Reached

    A dangerous-capability threshold is declared

    A frontier developer or government evaluator publicly says a released model has crossed a threshold for meaningfully enabling serious harm (for example biological or cyber misuse).

    Latest evidence: · 1 linked claim

    Linked claims
  11. Not yet

    AGI declared or widely agreed

    A major AI lab formally announces it has achieved AGI, or AI that can do most human jobs is widely agreed to exist.

    Latest evidence: · 8 linked claims

    Linked claims

How we decide

A milestone’s status comes only from the SiPoly claims linked to it and their published verdicts. For each claim we ask what its grading says about the milestone event: a claim that said it would happen and was graded Correct (or came true late) counts as reached; one graded Wrong counts as not yet; Partly counts as partly. For a claim that said it would not happen, it is the other way round. For a forecast with a stated probability, we use whether the event actually happened, not whether the forecast was good. A claim linked as a step toward the milestone can only show “partly”. The milestone is Reached if any linked claim shows it reached, otherwise Partly, otherwise Not yet. If its claims are all still open, it shows “Not yet (only open claims)”; with no linked claims it shows “No tracked claims yet”. We do not judge milestones directly.

Milestone definitions and links are an editorial choice and can be corrected; tell us. JSON