PendingPromise
A fully automated "legitimate AI researcher" by 2028
“internally, OpenAI is tracking toward achieving an intern-level research assistant by September 2026 and a fully automated “legitimate AI researcher” by 2028”
Context: Sam Altman on an OpenAI livestream, as reported by TechCrunch (Oct 28, 2025); OpenAI later gave March 2028 as the target.
How we judge it
Our interpretation: by 31 Dec 2028, OpenAI has a system that autonomously carries out larger research projects, publicly demonstrated or credibly described.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 814 days
- Verdict
- Pending
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 2 of 3 (dated, some interpretation)
