The AI forecaster scoreboard & promise tracker
90 claims
“Mid-2028 is earlier than Daniel’s current median prediction for full coding automation (2029), but the 2-year takeoff to superintelligence is slower than his median takeoff speed o…”
“said in an interview with the Financial Times that he predicts most, if not every, task in white-collar fields will be automated by AI within the next year or year and a half.”
“Isomorphic Labs, which uses artificial intelligence for drug discovery, expects to have its first clinical trials by the end of 2026, founder and CEO Demis Hassabis said on Tuesday…”
“With my parameters, it predicts a median of 2030 for full coding automation”
“No country will take a decisive lead in the GenAI “race” .”
“Human domestic robots like Optimus and Figure will be all demo and very little product.”
“Experts predict a 10x increase (from 3% to ~30%) in AI-engaged papers in Physics, 10 Materials Science, 11 and Medicine, 12 between 2022 and 2030.”
“Experts estimate a 10% chance that AI will solve or substantially assist in solving a Millennium Prize Problem by 2027, 2 up to 20% by 2030”
“Experts estimate a 10% chance that AI will solve or substantially assist in solving a Millennium Prize Problem by 2027”
“In 2028 and beyond, we are pretty confident we will have systems that can make more significant discoveries”
“In 2026, we expect AI to be capable of making very small discoveries.”
“internally, OpenAI is tracking toward achieving an intern-level research assistant by September 2026 and a fully automated “legitimate AI researcher” by 2028”
“I feel like the problems are tractable, they’re surmountable, but they’re still difficult. If I just average it out, it just feels like a decade to me.”
“By the end of 2027, models will frequently outperform experts on many tasks.”
“At least one model will match the performance of human experts across many industries before the end of 2026.”
“By 2030, on current trends, AI will be able to autonomously fix issues, implement features, and solve difficult (but well-defined) scientific programming problems.”
“we expect that few if any of the drugs approved for sale by 2030 will have benefited from today’s AI tools, let alone those of 2030.”
“By 2030, we predict that many scientific domains will have AI assistants comparable to coding assistants for software engineers today.”
“We're pretty unlikely (25%?) to see 80% reliability at 1 month tasks by the start of 2028.”
“I expect doubling times of around 170 days on METR's task suite (or similar tasks) [3] over the next 2 years or so which implies we'll be hitting 2 week 50% reliability horizon len…”
“I now would put ~15% probability by the start of 2029 and a 45% chance by the start of 2033.”
“I now would put ~15% probability by the start of 2029 and a 45% chance by the start of 2033.”
“I think it will be available for unsupervised personal use by the end of this year in certain geographies.”
“I think we will probably have autonomous ride-hailing in probably half the population of the US by the end of the year. That's at least our goal, subject to regulatory approvals.”
“2027 may see the arrival of robots that can do tasks in the real world.”
“2026 will likely see the arrival of systems that can figure out novel insights.”
“AI learns on the job as easily, organically, seamlessly, and quickly as a human, for any white collar work.”
“AI can do taxes end-to-end for my small business as well as a competent general manager could in a week: including chasing down all the receipts on different websites, finding all…”
“I would guess that sometime in the next 12 to 18 months, we'll reach the point where most of the code that's going toward these efforts is written by AI.”
“In the US the players that will determine whether self driving cars are successful or abandoned are #1 Waymo (Google) and #2 Zoox (Amazon). No one else matters.”
“Extrapolating this trend predicts that, in under a decade, we will see AI agents that can independently complete a large fraction of software tasks that currently take humans days…”
“I bet @littmath that in 5 years AI will be able to produce Annals-quality Number Theory papers at an inference budget at or below $100k/paper, at 3:1 odds in my favor.”
“I think we’ll be there in three to six months—where AI is writing 90 percent of the code.”
“We’re going to be launching unsupervised full self-driving as a paid service in Austin in June.”
“I think the shelf life of the current [LLM] paradigm is fairly short, probably three to five years”
“Probably in 2025, we at Meta, as well as the other companies that are basically working on this, are going to have an AI that can effectively be a sort of mid-level engineer that y…”
“We believe that, in 2025, we may see the first AI agents “join the workforce” and materially change the output of companies.”
“Hassabis had said last year the company would have AI-designed drugs in clinical trials by the end of 2025.”
“Hallucinations (which should really be called confabulations) will continue to haunt generative AI.”
“Humanoid robotics will see a lot of hype, but nobody will release anything to remotely as capable as Rosie the Robot .”
“Truly driverless cars, in which no human is required to attend to traffic, will continue to see usage limited to a modest number of cities, mainly in the West, mainly in good weath…”
“AI “Agents” will be endlessly hyped throughout 2025 but far from reliable, except possibly in very narrow use cases.”
“No single system will solve more than 4 of the AI 2027 Marcus-Brundage tasks by the end of 2025.”
“If there exist AI systems that can perform 8 of the 10 tasks below by the end of 2027, as determined by our panel of judges, Gary will donate $2,000 to a charity of Miles’ choice”
“If there exist AI systems that can perform 8 of the 10 tasks below by the end of 2027, as determined by our panel of judges, Gary will donate $2,000 to a charity of Miles’ choice;…”
“i think it’s likely (p=.6) that an o-series model solves a millennium prize math problem in 2025”
“LLM hallucinations [where they create nonsensical or inaccurate outputs] will become much less of a problem, certainly by 2029”
“I make the following claim: it is strikingly plausible that by 2027, models will be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer.”
“posted on the social-media platform X that the team is “working on releasing the AF3 model (incl weights) for academic use” within six months.”
“If we specified AGI to be something very specific, a set of tests where a software program can do very well — or maybe 8% better than most people — I believe we will get there with…”
“We are at least 3-5 years away from automating software engineering.”
“No robust solution to hallucinations”
“The aggregate forecasts give at least a 50% chance of AI systems achieving several milestones by 2028, including autonomously constructing a payment processing site from scratch, c…”
“In the next five years, this will change completely. You won’t have to use different apps for different tasks. You’ll simply tell your device, in everyday language, what you want t…”
“GPT 2030 will likely be superhuman at various specific tasks, including coding, hacking, and math, and potentially protein design”
“If the AI gets an A on at least 5 of out 6 of those exams using same grading scale as his students, then Bryan owes Matthew $500.”
“49. Largest Number of Parameters in a Machine Learning Model 150 trillion 10 trillion 2.74 7”
“49. Largest Number of Parameters in a Machine Learning Model 100 trillion 10 trillion 1.71 31”
“39. MATH Dataset Benchmark 71% 87.92% 1.38 30”
“40. “Massive Multitask Language Understanding” Benchmark 77.75% 88.7% 1.59 32”
“an outcome to which domain experts assigned only an 8.6% probability and superforecasters a mere 2.3% probability.”
“an outcome to which domain experts assigned only an 8.6% probability and superforecasters a mere 2.3% probability.”
“I'll stand by a >16% probability of the technical capability existing by end of 2025”
“I'd put 4% on "For the 2022, 2023, 2024, or 2025 IMO an AI built before the IMO is able to solve the single hardest problem"”
“Maybe I'll go 8% on "gets gold" instead of "solves hardest problem."”
“After years of tinkering and incremental progress, AIs can now play Diplomacy as well as human experts .”
“I remain confident that we will have the basic functionality for level five autonomy complete this year.”
“From our standpoint, if you fast forward a year, maybe a year and three months, but next year for sure, we’ll have over a million robotaxis on the road”
“AI beats a top human player at Starcraft: 70%”
“…in at least five of ten largest US cities: 30%”
“Average person can hail a self-driving car in at least one US city: 80%”
“A major city bans parking and cars with drivers from a non-trivial portion of a city so that driverless cars have free reign in that area. NET 2027 BY 2031”
“First dedicated lane where only cars in truly driverless mode are allowed on a public freeway. NET 2021”
“Such "taxi" services where the cars are also used with drivers at other times and with extended geography, in 10 major US cities NET 2025”
“Lab demo: NET 2025 Deployed systems: NET 2028”
“Dexterous robot hands generally available. NET 2030 BY 2040 (I hope!)”
“Expensive product: NET 2030 Affordable product: NET 2035 What is easy for humans is still very, very hard for robots.”
“A robot that can navigate around just about any US home, with its steps, its clutter, its narrow pathways between furniture, etc. Lab demo: NET 2026 Expensive product: NET 2030”
“A robot that can provide physical assistance to the elderly over multiple tasks (e.g., getting into and out of bed, washing, using the toilet, etc.) rather than just a point soluti…”
“Emergence of the generally agreed upon "next big thing" in AI beyond deep learning. NET 2023”
“Such "taxi" service as above in 50 of the 100 biggest US cities. NET 2028”
“Researchers predict AI will outperform humans in many activities in the next ten years, such as translating languages (by 2024), writing high-school essays (by 2026), driving a tru…”
“Researchers predict AI will outperform humans in many activities in the next ten years, such as translating languages (by 2024), writing high-school essays (by 2026), driving a tru…”
“Researchers predict AI will outperform humans in many activities in the next ten years, such as translating languages (by 2024), writing high-school essays (by 2026), driving a tru…”
“Researchers predict AI will outperform humans in many activities in the next ten years, such as translating languages (by 2024), writing high-school essays (by 2026), driving a tru…”
“Researchers predict AI will outperform humans in many activities in the next ten years, such as translating languages (by 2024), writing high-school essays (by 2026), driving a tru…”
“we’ll be able to do a demonstration drive of full autonomy all the way from LA to New York, from home in LA to let’s say dropping you off in Time Square in New York, and then havin…”
“Autonomous vehicle fleets will quickly become widespread and will account for the majority of Lyft rides within 5 years.”
“People should stop training radiologists now. It’s just completely obvious that within five years, deep learning is going to do a lot better than radiologists”
“By 2029 no computer – or "machine intelligence" – will have passed the Turing Test.”
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