OpenPrediction
By end-2027, models will frequently outperform experts on many tasks
“By the end of 2027, models will frequently outperform experts on many tasks.”
Context: "Failing to understand the exponential, again" (Sep 27, 2025).
How we judge it
Our interpretation: by 31 Dec 2027, a model clearly beats (not just ties) industry experts on a majority of tasks in GDPval or an equivalent evaluation.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 449 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 1 of 3 (vague or hedged)
