# SiPoly

> SiPoly is a public scoreboard of AI predictions and promises: verbatim quotes with primary sources, operationalized resolution criteria (our interpretation), and verdicts graded when the resolve-by date arrives. Claims are graded, not people.

Tracking 209 claims from 83 claimants: 84 resolved, 121 open, 3 too vague to grade. Data as of 2026-10-08.

## Key pages
- [Methodology: scoring (Brier, specificity weighting, Wilson intervals)](https://sipoly.si/methodology/)
- [Leaderboards (min. 5 resolved claims)](https://sipoly.si/leaderboards/)
- [Coming-due calendar](https://sipoly.si/coming-due/)
- [Promise tracker for organizations](https://sipoly.si/promises/)
- [Editorial standards and disclosure](https://sipoly.si/editorial-standards/)
- [Corrections and right of reply](https://sipoly.si/corrections/)

## Data
- [JSON API: claims](https://sipoly.si/wp-json/sipoly/v1/claims)
- [JSON API: leaderboard](https://sipoly.si/wp-json/sipoly/v1/leaderboard)
- [JSON API: claimants](https://sipoly.si/wp-json/sipoly/v1/claimants)
- [RSS: resolutions](https://sipoly.si/feed/resolutions/)
- [Full claim list for LLMs](https://sipoly.si/llms-full.txt)

## Recently resolved
- [Broken: More personalized Siri "in the coming year"](https://sipoly.si/claim/apple-personal-siri-coming-year/) — Apple
- [Wrong: AI smarter than any one human "around the end of next year"](https://sipoly.si/claim/musk-ai-smarter-end-2025/) — Elon Musk
- [Broken: Apollo Go robotaxis in 65 cities by 2025 (100 by 2030)](https://sipoly.si/claim/baidu-apollo-65-cities-2025/) — Baidu
- [Broken: Optimus 3 production to start "at the beginning of next year" (2026)](https://sipoly.si/claim/tesla-optimus3-production-early-2026/) — Tesla
- [Kept: Waymo One open to riders in Miami in 2026](https://sipoly.si/claim/waymo-miami-2026/) — Waymo
- [Broken: AI-designed drugs in clinical trials by the end of 2025](https://sipoly.si/claim/isomorphic-trials-end-2025/) — Isomorphic Labs
- [Correct: 2025: humanoid hype, but nothing "remotely as capable as Rosie the Robot"](https://sipoly.si/claim/marcus-2025-no-rosie-robot/) — Gary Marcus
- [Correct: Dual-use (driver/driverless) taxi service in 10 major US cities: not before 2025](https://sipoly.si/claim/brooks-dual-use-taxi-10-cities-net2025/) — Rodney Brooks
- [Broken: Tesla robotaxi in "eight to ten metro areas" by end of 2025](https://sipoly.si/claim/tesla-robotaxi-8-10-metros-2025/) — Tesla
- [Broken: Unsupervised FSD for personally owned cars by end of 2025 "in certain geographies"](https://sipoly.si/claim/tesla-unsupervised-personal-fsd-2025/) — Tesla