Rankings use only resolved claims. A claimant needs at least 5 resolved claims to be ranked; everyone else is listed as “not yet ranked”. Every score comes with its sample size (n) and a 95% interval, so small samples look as uncertain as they are. How scoring works.
People
People: ranked by score (5+ resolved claims)| # | Claimant | Score | 95% interval | n | Record (correct–partly–wrong) | Brier |
|---|
| 1 | GMGary Marcus | 100% | 68%–100% | 8 | 8–0–0 | — |
|---|
| 2 | SAScott Alexander | 92% | 54%–99% | 7 | 7–0–0 | 0.087 (7) |
|---|
Not yet ranked: fewer than 5 resolved claims (10)
- Elon Musk — 4 resolved, record 0–0–4
- Paul Christiano — 2 resolved, record 1–0–1
- Rodney Brooks — 2 resolved, record 2–0–0
- Andrew Critch — 1 resolved, record 1–0–0
- Aidan McLaughlin — 1 resolved, record 0–0–1
- Dario Amodei — 1 resolved, record 0–0–1
- John Zimmer — 1 resolved, record 0–0–1
- Eliezer Yudkowsky — 1 resolved, record 0–0–1
- Geoffrey Hinton — 1 resolved, record 0–0–1
- Daniel Kokotajlo — 1 resolved, record 1–0–0
Organizations
Not yet ranked: fewer than 5 resolved claims (16)
- Apple — 4 resolved, record 3–0–1
- Vox Future Perfect — 3 resolved, record 2–0–1
- XPT domain experts — 3 resolved, record 1–0–2
- Waymo — 3 resolved, record 1–1–1
- Meta — 2 resolved, record 2–0–0
- European Union (AI Act) — 2 resolved, record 1–1–0
- xAI — 2 resolved, record 1–0–1
- Isomorphic Labs — 1 resolved, record 0–0–1
- AMD — 1 resolved, record 1–0–0
- Intel — 1 resolved, record 0–0–1
- Ford Motor Company — 1 resolved, record 0–0–1
- Motional — 1 resolved, record 0–0–1
- Baidu — 1 resolved, record 0–0–1
- Zoox — 1 resolved, record 1–0–0
- Anthropic — 1 resolved, record 0–1–0
- Microsoft — 1 resolved, record 0–0–1
For delivery promises (launch dates, open-weight releases, safety commitments) see the Promise tracker.
By topic
Policy & regulation
Not yet ranked: fewer than 5 resolved claims (6)
Products & releases
Products & releases: claimants with 5+ resolved claims| # | Claimant | Score | 95% interval | n | Record (correct–partly–wrong) | Brier |
|---|
| 1 | TTesla | 10% | 1%–54% | 5 | 0–1–4 | — |
|---|
Not yet ranked: fewer than 5 resolved claims (23)
- OpenAI — 4 resolved, record 3–1–0
- Apple — 4 resolved, record 3–0–1
- Google / Google DeepMind — 3 resolved, record 3–0–0
- Waymo — 3 resolved, record 1–1–1
- Scott Alexander — 3 resolved, record 3–0–0
- Vox Future Perfect — 2 resolved, record 1–0–1
- Elon Musk — 2 resolved, record 0–0–2
- xAI — 2 resolved, record 1–0–1
- Isomorphic Labs — 1 resolved, record 0–0–1
- AMD — 1 resolved, record 1–0–0
- Intel — 1 resolved, record 0–0–1
- Ford Motor Company — 1 resolved, record 0–0–1
- Motional — 1 resolved, record 0–0–1
- XPT superforecasters — 1 resolved, record 0–0–1
- XPT domain experts — 1 resolved, record 1–0–0
- Baidu — 1 resolved, record 0–0–1
- Zoox — 1 resolved, record 1–0–0
- Anthropic — 1 resolved, record 0–1–0
- Microsoft — 1 resolved, record 0–0–1
- Meta — 1 resolved, record 1–0–0
- John Zimmer — 1 resolved, record 0–0–1
- Gary Marcus — 1 resolved, record 1–0–0
- Rodney Brooks — 1 resolved, record 1–0–0
Topics without a ranked claimant yet: