- Score
- 10%
- 95% interval
- 1%–54%
- Resolved
- 5
- Record (C–P–W)
- 0–1–4
- Open
- 3
- Too vague
- 0
Ranked on leaderboards (5 resolved claims). Score = specificity-weighted average of claim points; we grade claims, not people.
Promise tracker
Kept 0 Partly 1 Broken 4 Pending 3
Calibration
No resolved claims with a stated probability yet, so there is nothing to calibrate. Calibration needs forecasts like “70% chance of X”.
Track record
Resolved (5)
Tesla robotaxi in "eight to ten metro areas" by end of 2025
“We do expect to be operating robotaxi in, I think, about eight to ten metro areas by the end of the year. It depends on various regulatory approvals.”
Optimus 3 production to start "at the beginning of next year" (2026)
“We will have prototypes of that in about three months, and it's subtooling in production. We will start production on that at the beginning of next year.”
Unsupervised FSD for personally owned cars by end of 2025 "in certain geographies"
“I think it will be available for unsupervised personal use by the end of this year in certain geographies.”
Tesla autonomous ride-hailing for "half the population of the US" by end of 2025
“I think we will probably have autonomous ride-hailing in probably half the population of the US by the end of the year. That's at least our goal, subject to regulatory approvals.”
Unsupervised FSD paid service in Austin in June 2025
“We’re going to be launching unsupervised full self-driving as a paid service in Austin in June.”
Open (3)
Owners able to add their cars to the Tesla robotaxi fleet in 2026, "confidently next year"
“But I guess next year is I'd say confidently next year. I'm not sure when next year, but confidently next year, people would be able to add or subtract their car to the Tesla, Inc.…”
Optimus "production design 2" to launch in 2026
“Those Optimus in use at the Tesla factories for production design 1 will inform how will we change for production design 2, which we expect to launch next year.”
"Several thousand" Optimus robots built in 2025
“Will we succeed in building 10,000 exactly by the end of December this year? Probably not, but will we succeed in making several thousand? Yes, I think we will.”
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