Came true late: · about 4½ months after the deadline
Optimus 3 production to start "at the beginning of next year" (2026)
“We will have prototypes of that in about three months, and it's subtooling in production. We will start production on that at the beginning of next year.”
Context: Elon Musk on the Tesla Q2 2025 earnings call, on the Optimus 3 humanoid robot.
How we judge it
Our interpretation: Tesla starts production of Optimus 3 by 31 Mar 2026.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Verdict
- Broken at deadline ()
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 3 of 3 (precise and measurable)
- Score
- 0.0 points × weight 3
Later developments
Came true late: · about 4½ months after the deadline
Verdict at the deadline: Broken (). That verdict, and the score, stay as they are; this line records that it happened later. Methodology
Tesla converted the Fremont Model S/X line to Optimus; per The Information (via Electrek) output went from a few dozen a week in Q2 small-batch testing to several hundred V3 units a week in August 2026; All Things Elon reported production under way on 28 Aug 2026.
- Electrek: Tesla ramps Optimus to hundreds a week (Sep 25, 2026)
- All Things Elon: Optimus enters production at Fremont (Aug 28, 2026)
- Electrek: Tesla says FSD v15 is a “step-change”, Optimus sells in 2027 (Aug 20, 2026)
- Electrek: Tesla pushes Optimus V3 reveal later this year, again (Apr 22, 2026)
Last checked for later developments .
Evidence & grader’s note
- Tesla Q3 2025 call: production start now "towards the end of next year"
- Tesla Q4 2025 call: Optimus "still in the R&D phase" (Jan 28, 2026)
By October 2025 Musk had moved the production start to "towards the end of next year", and in January 2026 he said Optimus was still in the R&D phase with no significant production volume expected until probably the end of 2026.
