The AI forecaster scoreboard & promise tracker
63 claims
“Isomorphic Labs, which uses artificial intelligence for drug discovery, expects to have its first clinical trials by the end of 2026, founder and CEO Demis Hassabis said on Tuesday…”
“Human domestic robots like Optimus and Figure will be all demo and very little product.”
“We do expect to be operating robotaxi in, I think, about eight to ten metro areas by the end of the year. It depends on various regulatory approvals.”
“We’re bringing our fully autonomous ride-hailing service across the pond, where we intend to offer rides – with no human behind the wheel – in 2026.”
“But I guess next year is I'd say confidently next year. I'm not sure when next year, but confidently next year, people would be able to add or subtract their car to the Tesla, Inc.…”
“We will have prototypes of that in about three months, and it's subtooling in production. We will start production on that at the beginning of next year.”
“I think it will be available for unsupervised personal use by the end of this year in certain geographies.”
“I think we will probably have autonomous ride-hailing in probably half the population of the US by the end of the year. That's at least our goal, subject to regulatory approvals.”
“Over 40% of agentic AI projects will be canceled by the end of 2027, due to escalating costs, unclear business value or inadequate risk controls”
“Zoox is gearing up to start public rides in Las Vegas later this year, with San Francisco to follow.”
“we are excited to release a powerful new open-weight language model with reasoning in the coming months”
“In the US the players that will determine whether self driving cars are successful or abandoned are #1 Waymo (Google) and #2 Zoox (Amazon). No one else matters.”
“It’s official: Waymo One, the world’s leading fully autonomous ride-hailing service, will be ready for riders in the nation’s capital on the Waymo One app in 2026.”
“Huang also announced Rubin Ultra, which will follow in the second half of 2027.”
“The centerpiece announcement was Vera Rubin, first teased at Computex 2024 and now scheduled for release in the second half of 2026.”
“It’s going to take us longer than we thought to deliver on these features and we anticipate rolling them out in the coming year.”
“Altman didn’t say exactly when GPT-4.5 and GPT-5 might be released, but he did give a vague estimate of “weeks / months.””
“with AI, over the next decade, that will become free, commonplace — great medical advice, great tutoring”
“Those Optimus in use at the Tesla factories for production design 1 will inform how will we change for production design 2, which we expect to launch next year.”
“Will we succeed in building 10,000 exactly by the end of December this year? Probably not, but will we succeed in making several thousand? Yes, I think we will.”
“We’re going to be launching unsupervised full self-driving as a paid service in Austin in June.”
“Hassabis had said last year the company would have AI-designed drugs in clinical trials by the end of 2025.”
“Humanoid robotics will see a lot of hype, but nobody will release anything to remotely as capable as Rosie the Robot .”
“Truly driverless cars, in which no human is required to attend to traffic, will continue to see usage limited to a modest number of cities, mainly in the West, mainly in good weath…”
“Altman said the company plans to launch that model "around the end of January," with o3 following "shortly after that."”
“This April, Apple Intelligence features will start to roll out to iPhone and iPad users in the EU.”
“Additional languages, including Chinese, English (India), English (Singapore), French, German, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese, Spanish, and Vietnamese will be coming through…”
“Through our new fleet partnership with Moove , a global leader in innovative mobility solutions, we’ll work to open our doors to riders in 2026, offering our ride-hailing service v…”
“AMD also shared new details on next-gen AMD Instinct MI350 series accelerators expected to launch in the second half of 2025”
“Today, Waymo and Uber are announcing an expanded partnership to bring the Waymo One experience to Austin and Atlanta, only on the Uber app, beginning in early 2025.”
“Grok 3 end of year after training on 100k H100s should be really something special”
“To complete the Claude 3.5 model family, we’ll be releasing Claude 3.5 Haiku and Claude 3.5 Opus later this year.”
“ChatGPT will come to iOS 18, iPadOS 18, and macOS Sequoia later this year, powered by GPT-4o.”
“Prediction: AI will displace social drinking within 5 years”
“Now with Recall, in preview starting June 18, you can access virtually what you have seen or done on your PC in a way that feels like having photographic memory.”
“That means that this week, hundreds of millions of users will have access to AI Overviews, and we expect to bring them to over a billion people by the end of the year.”
“posted on the social-media platform X that the team is “working on releasing the AF3 model (incl weights) for academic use” within six months.”
“We’ll roll out a new version of Voice Mode with GPT‑4o in alpha within ChatGPT Plus in the coming weeks.”
“We now expect over $500 million in accelerated revenue in second half of 2024 and with increasing momentum into 2025 based on Gaudi 3's vastly superior TCO as well as our own expan…”
“Over the coming months, we’ll release multiple models with new capabilities including multimodality, the ability to converse in multiple languages, a much longer context window, an…”
“This week, @xAI will open source Grok”
“Waymo will expand to a new city (80 percent)”
“OpenAI will release ChatGPT-5 by the end of November 2024 (75 percent)”
“we’ll make Gemini Ultra available to select customers, developers, partners and safety and responsibility experts for early experimentation and feedback before rolling it out to de…”
“In the next five years, this will change completely. You won’t have to use different apps for different tasks. You’ll simply tell your device, in everyday language, what you want t…”
“35. GPT Revenue (Hanson Wins Bet that GPT Revenue < $1B) 45% 0% 0.90 6”
“35. GPT Revenue (Hanson Wins Bet that GPT Revenue < $1B) 53.5% 0% 1.07 32”
“Apollo Go, Baidu’s robotaxi service, aims to be in 65 cities by 2025 and 100 cities by 2030, the firm’s co-founder and CEO Robin Li said on an analyst call Wednesday.”
“Motional’s next-generation robotaxis, the all-electric Hyundai IONIQ 5-based robotaxi, will be available on the Lyft app in Las Vegas, starting in 2023.”
“With Cruise, GM has a market-leading position in autonomous services with the potential to deliver $50 billion in revenue annually by the end of the decade.”
“From our standpoint, if you fast forward a year, maybe a year and three months, but next year for sure, we’ll have over a million robotaxis on the road”
“We’ll add up to 20,000 I-PACEs to Waymo’s fleet in the next few years”
“Average person can buy a self-driving car for less than $100,000: 30%”
“…in at least five of ten largest US cities: 30%”
“Average person can hail a self-driving car in at least one US city: 80%”
“Such "taxi" services where the cars are also used with drivers at other times and with extended geography, in 10 major US cities NET 2025”
“Lab demo: NET 2025 Deployed systems: NET 2028”
“Expensive product: NET 2030 Affordable product: NET 2035 What is easy for humans is still very, very hard for robots.”
“A robot that can navigate around just about any US home, with its steps, its clutter, its narrow pathways between furniture, etc. Lab demo: NET 2026 Expensive product: NET 2030”
“Such "taxi" service as above in 50 of the 100 biggest US cities. NET 2028”
“we’ll be able to do a demonstration drive of full autonomy all the way from LA to New York, from home in LA to let’s say dropping you off in Time Square in New York, and then havin…”
“Autonomous vehicle fleets will quickly become widespread and will account for the majority of Lyft rides within 5 years.”
“Ford today announces its intent to have a high-volume, fully autonomous SAE level 4-capable vehicle in commercial operation in 2021 in a ride-hailing or ride-sharing service.”
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