By end of 2024: no massive advance, "no GPT-5, or disappointing GPT-5"
“No massive advance (no GPT-5, or disappointing GPT-5)”
Context: Post on X listing seven predictions "By end of 2024".
How we judge it
Our interpretation: correct if no model branded GPT-5 is released by 31 Dec 2024 and no other release is broadly regarded as a GPT-4-to-GPT-5-sized leap.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Verdict
- Correct ()
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 2 of 3 (dated, some interpretation)
- Score
- 1.0 points × weight 2
Evidence & grader’s note
- OpenAI: Introducing GPT-5 (released Aug 7, 2025)
- Vox: OpenAI did not release a ChatGPT-5 in 2024
- LessWrong "2024 in AI predictions": o1 and o3 are big advances
- Gary Marcus on X grading himself "7/7 unless you count 03" (Dec 30, 2024)
No GPT-5 shipped in 2024 (it came in Aug 2025). OpenAI's o1 (Sep 2024) and the announced o3 (Dec 2024) are argued by some to be a massive advance; Marcus himself flags o3 as a possible exception.
Evidence timeline
Dated entries from the claim’s own record (statement, verdict, later developments) and sourced entries added by editors. Each links to its source; none changes the verdict.
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