Driverless taxi with arbitrary pick-up and drop-off in a major US city: not before 2032
“A driverless "taxi" service in a major US city with arbitrary pick and drop off locations, even in a restricted geographical area. NET 2032”
Context: From Brooks's dated predictions table first published 1 Jan 2018 ("My Dated Predictions"). NET = "no earlier than" (correct if it has not happened before that year); BY = "by that year".
How we judge it
Our interpretation: correct if no driverless taxi service with arbitrary pick-up/drop-off points operates in a major US city before 1 Jan 2032; wrong if one does.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Verdict
- Wrong ()
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 3 of 3 (precise and measurable)
- Score
- 0.0 points × weight 3
Evidence & grader’s note
Brooks concedes Waymo's San Francisco service looks and feels like this eight years earlier than he predicted, while noting humans in the loop (remote assistance) and less flexible pick-up/drop-off than human drivers.
Evidence timeline
Dated entries from the claim’s own record (statement, verdict, later developments) and sourced entries added by editors. Each links to its source; none changes the verdict.
- What changes for
- Transport & driving
- Readiness milestone
- Part of Driverless commercial fleets in several major cities (says it will not happen)
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