What do AI predictions and promises mean for your work? Pick an industry or role to see the claims tracked on SiPoly that bear on it: which came true, which are still open and when they are due, and which did not happen. Every claim links to its verbatim quote, source and verdict.
What changes for Transport & driving?
Claims about self-driving cars, robotaxis and driverless trucks, and about people who drive for a living.
On SiPoly: 13 claims came true (fully or partly), 7 are open, 14 did not come true, 1 could not be graded.
Came true (13)
- Kept Waymo One open to riders in Miami in 2026
- Correct Dual-use (driver/driverless) taxi service in 10 major US cities: not before 2025
- Correct Truly driverless cars limited to a modest number of cities in 2025
- Kept Zoox to start public robotaxi rides in Las Vegas later in 2025
- Partly kept at deadline Unsupervised FSD paid service in Austin in June 2025
- Kept Commercial driverless trucking in Texas in April 2025
- Partly kept at deadline Waymo on Uber in Austin and Atlanta "beginning in early 2025"
- Correct 80%: Waymo opens public driverless rides in a new city in 2024
- Correct First freeway lane reserved for truly driverless cars: not before 2021
- Correct 30%: average person can buy a self-driving car for under $100,000 by 2023
- Correct 10%: 5% of US truck drivers replaced by self-driving trucks by 2023
- Correct 30%: self-driving hail in five of the ten largest US cities by 2023
- Correct 80%: average person can hail a self-driving car in at least one US city by 2023
Still open, with deadline (7)
- Pending Fully driverless Waymo rides in London in 2026
- Pending Owners able to add their cars to the Tesla robotaxi fleet in 2026, "confidently next year"
- Pending Waymo One ready for riders in Washington, D.C. in 2026
- Open Driverless taxi service in 50 of the 100 biggest US cities: not before 2028
- Open AI will outperform humans at driving a truck by 2027 (median)
- Open A major city bans human-driven cars from part of town for driverless cars: 2027 to 2031
- Open Only Waymo and Zoox will matter for US self-driving through 2035
Did not come true (14)
- Broken Apollo Go robotaxis in 65 cities by 2025 (100 by 2030)
- Broken No safety drivers in "large parts of Austin" by end of 2025
- Broken Tesla robotaxi in "eight to ten metro areas" by end of 2025
- Broken Unsupervised FSD for personally owned cars by end of 2025 "in certain geographies"
- Broken Tesla autonomous ride-hailing for "half the population of the US" by end of 2025
- Broken Up to 20,000 Jaguar I-PACEs "in the next few years"
- Wrong Driverless taxi with arbitrary pick-up and drop-off in a major US city: not before 2032
- Broken Commercial driverless trucking launch by the end of 2024
- Broken Fully driverless public robotaxi service with Lyft in Las Vegas in 2023
- Broken High-volume, fully autonomous (no steering wheel) ride-hailing vehicle in commercial operation in 2021
- Wrong Autonomous vehicles to provide the majority of Lyft rides within five years
- Wrong "Over a million robotaxis on the road" in 2020
- Wrong Basic functionality for Level 5 autonomy complete in 2020
- Wrong Fully autonomous LA-to-New York demo drive "by the end of next year"
“Came true” and “did not” are our verdicts on each claim as worded (a forecast with a stated probability is graded on its probability). Claims are matched to sectors by keyword rules and editors’ review, so a claim can appear under several sectors. These are other people’s claims; SiPoly makes no forecast of its own. Methodology