What do AI predictions and promises mean for your work? Pick an industry or role to see the claims tracked on SiPoly that bear on it: which came true, which are still open and when they are due, and which did not happen. Every claim links to its verbatim quote, source and verdict.
What changes for Government & policy?
Claims about AI laws and regulation, government programmes, elections and national security.
On SiPoly: 16 claims came true (fully or partly), 10 are open, 3 did not come true.
Came true (16)
- Partly kept AI Act to apply generally from 2 August 2026
- Kept China's core AI industry to exceed 400 billion RMB by 2025
- Correct Generative-AI copyright lawsuits will continue throughout 2025
- Kept GPAI rules apply from 2 August 2025
- Kept AI Action Plan within 180 days (EO 14179)
- Partly kept UK to publish a long-term AI infrastructure plan within 6 months, backed by a 10-year investment commitment
- Partly kept at deadline GPAI codes of practice ready "at the latest by 2 May 2025"
- Kept Apple Intelligence on iPhone and iPad in the EU starting April 2025
- Kept Seoul commitment: publish a safety framework before the France summit
- Kept Seoul commitment: publish a safety framework before the France summit
- Kept EO 14110: NIST generative-AI companion to the AI Risk Management Framework within 270 days
- Kept EO 14110: AI risk assessments for critical infrastructure within 90 days
- Kept EO 14110: frontier-model developers must report to the government within 90 days
- Kept EO 14110: launch a National AI Research Resource pilot within 90 days
- Correct First freeway lane reserved for truly driverless cars: not before 2021
- Kept China to have initial AI laws, ethics norms and safety assessment by 2025
Still open, with deadline (10)
- Pending EO 14434: proposed legal definition of "Super Intelligence" due to the President within 60 days
- Open AI will be an election issue in the 2026 US midterms
- Open No country takes a decisive lead in the GenAI race in 2026
- Open A 10,000-person anti-AI protest in Washington, DC by late 2026
- Pending Embedded third-party evaluators with "employee-like access" inside Anthropic
- Open Bet: AI will not get an A on 5 of his 6 latest midterms by January 2029
- Pending Binding regulation on the most powerful AI model developers
- Pending UK to expand its AI Research Resource compute "by at least 20x by 2030"
- Pending China to be "the world's primary AI innovation center" by 2030
- Open A major city bans human-driven cars from part of town for driverless cars: 2027 to 2031
Did not come true (3)
“Came true” and “did not” are our verdicts on each claim as worded (a forecast with a stated probability is graded on its probability). Claims are matched to sectors by keyword rules and editors’ review, so a claim can appear under several sectors. These are other people’s claims; SiPoly makes no forecast of its own. Methodology