What changes for Everyone? AI claims that came true, are open or did not

What do AI predictions and promises mean for your work? Pick an industry or role to see the claims tracked on SiPoly that bear on it: which came true, which are still open and when they are due, and which did not happen. Every claim links to its verbatim quote, source and verdict.

What changes for Everyone?

Claims about AI’s broad effects: when human-level AI (AGI) might arrive, jobs across the whole economy, and society as a whole.

On SiPoly: 4 claims came true (fully or partly), 40 are open, 2 did not come true, 3 could not be graded.

Came true (4)

Correct 20% chance of AGI (replacing the majority of human jobs) by end of 2025 Andrew Critch · graded Dec 31, 2025
Correct 30%: a major AI lab will formally claim AGI in 2025 Vox Future Perfect · graded Dec 31, 2025
Correct Less than 10% of the workforce replaced by AI in 2025 Gary Marcus · graded Dec 31, 2025
Correct No AGI in 2025 Gary Marcus · graded Dec 31, 2025

Still open, with deadline (40)

Open By end of 2026 OpenAI will have an internal system Altman would call AGI Sam Altman · resolve by Dec 31, 2026 Due in 81 days
Open 10% (and rising) chance that Grok 5 achieves AGI Elon Musk · resolve by Dec 31, 2026 Due in 81 days
Open AI better, faster and cheaper at any screen-based job "by next year" Emad Mostaque · resolve by Dec 31, 2026 Due in 81 days
Open Digital superintelligence "this year" (2025), or "next year for sure" Elon Musk · resolve by Dec 31, 2026 Due in 81 days
Open A 10,000-person anti-AI protest in Washington, DC by late 2026 AI Futures Project · resolve by Dec 31, 2026 Due in 81 days
Open 40% chance of AGI (replacing the majority of human jobs) by end of 2026 Andrew Critch · resolve by Dec 31, 2026 Due in 81 days
Open About a 50% chance of AGI within 3 years (Feb 2024) Daniel Kokotajlo · resolve by Feb 19, 2027 Due in 131 days
Open AGI in 2027 (State of AI Report ninth prediction) Nathan Benaich · resolve by Dec 31, 2027 Due in 446 days
Open No AGI in 2026 (or 2027) Gary Marcus · resolve by Dec 31, 2027 Due in 446 days
Open AGI "likely to arrive by 2027" Roman Yampolskiy · resolve by Dec 31, 2027 Due in 446 days
Open An AI company will claim AGI "probably in 2026 or 2027" Kevin Roose · resolve by Dec 31, 2027 Due in 446 days
Open "A 50% chance of AGI in the next 3 years" (from Jan 2025) Shane Legg · resolve by Jan 10, 2028 Due in 456 days
Open US real GDP growth in 2027 above 3.3%, ">50% higher than 2026" Elon Musk · resolve by Jan 31, 2028 Due in 477 days
Open "Some form of AGI in the next six to 18 months" (Sep 2026) Dan Schulman · resolve by Mar 30, 2028 Due in 536 days
Open Generative AI will reduce Amazon's total corporate workforce "in the next few years" Amazon · resolve by Jun 30, 2028 Due in 628 days
Open AGI "likely to emerge in the next four years" (from Oct 2024) Thomas L. Friedman · resolve by Oct 29, 2028 Due in 749 days
Open 75% chance of AGI (replacing the majority of human jobs) by end of 2028 Andrew Critch · resolve by Dec 31, 2028 Due in 812 days
Open AGI "will probably get developed during this president's term" Sam Altman · resolve by Jan 20, 2029 Due in 832 days
Open AI will do well on any specified test set ("AGI") within 5 years Jensen Huang · resolve by Mar 19, 2029 Due in 890 days
Open AGI "one to 10 times smarter than humans" in the next three to five years Masayoshi Son · resolve by Jun 21, 2029 Due in 984 days
Pending Binding regulation on the most powerful AI model developers UK Labour Party / UK Government · resolve by Jul 4, 2029 Due in 997 days
Open Median 2029 for full coding automation (as of Feb 2026) Daniel Kokotajlo · resolve by Dec 31, 2029 Due in 1177 days
Open No halving of US labor-force participation and no 15% GDP growth year by 2029 Matthew Barnett · resolve by Dec 31, 2029 Due in 1177 days
Open Human-level intelligence and AGI by 2029 Ray Kurzweil · resolve by Dec 31, 2029 Due in 1177 days
Open AI could wipe out half of entry-level white-collar jobs and push unemployment to 10-20% within 1-5 years Dario Amodei · resolve by May 28, 2030 Due in 1325 days
Open Within five years AI will be able to do 80% of 80% of all jobs Vinod Khosla · resolve by Jul 1, 2030 Due in 1359 days
Open "In five years" unemployment levels never seen before: "Not talking about 10% … but 99%" Roman Yampolskiy · resolve by Sep 4, 2030 Due in 1424 days
Open Claims of AGI by 2030 are "laughable" Christopher Manning · resolve by Dec 31, 2030 Due in 1542 days
Open Human-level AGI most likely in 2029-2030, possibly as early as 2027 Ben Goertzel · resolve by Dec 31, 2030 Due in 1542 days
Open ~15% probability of transformative AI by 2030 Ajeya Cotra · resolve by Dec 31, 2030 Due in 1542 days
Open 50/50 that AI learns on the job like a human for any white-collar work by 2032 Dwarkesh Patel · resolve by Dec 31, 2032 Due in 2273 days
Open AGI "slightly after" 2030, not quite by 2030 Sundar Pichai · resolve by Dec 31, 2033 Due in 2638 days
Open Generative AI could raise global GDP by 7% over ten years Goldman Sachs Research · resolve by Dec 31, 2033 Due in 2638 days
Open AI will displace about 40% of the world's jobs within 15 years Kai-Fu Lee · resolve by Jan 13, 2034 Due in 2651 days
Open Transformative economic and societal impacts of AI will take decades Arvind Narayanan · resolve by Apr 15, 2035 Due in 3108 days
Open Maybe 50% chance of AGI in five to ten years Demis Hassabis · resolve by Jun 4, 2035 Due in 3158 days
Open Strong AGI expected "in the next 5-10 years" (from Nov 2025) Daniel Kokotajlo · resolve by Nov 12, 2035 Due in 3319 days
Open ~35% probability of transformative AI by 2036 Ajeya Cotra · resolve by Dec 31, 2036 Due in 3734 days
Open Median ~2040 for transformative AI (50% by 2040) Ajeya Cotra · resolve by Dec 31, 2040 Due in 5195 days
Open Transformative AGI by 2043 is less than 1% likely Ted Sanders · resolve by Dec 31, 2043 Due in 6290 days

Did not come true (2)

Wrong AGI, defined as smarter than the smartest human, "within two years" Elon Musk · graded Apr 8, 2026
Broken 20% of secured compute to superalignment over four years OpenAI · graded May 17, 2024

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“Came true” and “did not” are our verdicts on each claim as worded (a forecast with a stated probability is graded on its probability). Claims are matched to sectors by keyword rules and editors’ review, so a claim can appear under several sectors. These are other people’s claims; SiPoly makes no forecast of its own. Methodology

What changes for me?