"Some form of AGI in the next six to 18 months" (Sep 2026)
“I think we get to some form of AGI in the next six to 18 months. I think it’s right on us.”
Context: Verizon CEO Dan Schulman in conversation with Fortune's Diane Brady at Ford Pro Accelerate in Detroit, 30 Sep 2026, as reported by Fortune.
How we judge it
Our interpretation: correct if by 30 Mar 2028 (18 months after the statement) an AI system is broadly recognized by independent experts as AGI, i.e. able to do most economically valuable cognitive work at the level of a skilled professional across domains. A developer's own AGI claim does not count on its own.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 536 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 2 of 3 (dated, some interpretation)
- What changes for
- Everyone
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