The AI forecaster scoreboard & promise tracker
44 claims
“Mid-2028 is earlier than Daniel’s current median prediction for full coding automation (2029), but the 2-year takeoff to superintelligence is slower than his median takeoff speed o…”
“With my parameters, it predicts a median of 2030 for full coding automation”
“We won’t get to AGI in 2026 (or 7).”
“I think like 5 to 20.”
“very roughly, something pretty clearly superhuman in most respects by end of 2027 + also very big stuff before then”
“The companies seem to think strong AGI is just a few years away, and while I'm not as bullish as they are, I do expect it to happen in the next 5-10 years.”
“internally, OpenAI is tracking toward achieving an intern-level research assistant by September 2026 and a fully automated “legitimate AI researcher” by 2028”
“I feel like the problems are tractable, they’re surmountable, but they’re still difficult. If I just average it out, it just feels like a decade to me.”
“No. We’re not there yet. But the real AI is coming. I think we’ve got about 5 years.”
“said artificial general intelligence — systems as capable as humans across domains — is likely to arrive by 2027.”
“I now would put ~15% probability by the start of 2029 and a 45% chance by the start of 2033.”
“I now would put ~15% probability by the start of 2029 and a 45% chance by the start of 2033.”
“2026 will likely see the arrival of systems that can figure out novel insights.”
“I don’t think we’ll quite get there by 2030, so my sense is it’s slightly after that”
“In the next five to 10 years, there’s maybe a 50 percent chance that we'll have what we define as AGI.”
“AI learns on the job as easily, organically, seamlessly, and quickly as a human, for any white collar work.”
“I still think full automation of remote work in 10 years is plausible, because it’s what we would predict if we straightforwardly extrapolate current rates of revenue growth and as…”
“we expect powerful AI systems will emerge in late 2026 or early 2027.”
“p(AGI by eoy 2028) = 75%”
“p(AGI by eoy 2026) = 40%”
“p(AGI by eoy 2025) = 20%”
“Of course this now means a 50% chance of AGI in the next 3 years!”
“AGI will probably get developed during this president's term, and getting that right seems really important.”
“A major lab will formally claim it has achieved AGI (30 percent)”
“We will not see artificial general intelligence this year, despite claims by Elon Musk to the contrary.”
“If there exist AI systems that can perform 8 of the 10 tasks below by the end of 2027, as determined by our panel of judges, Gary will donate $2,000 to a charity of Miles’ choice”
“If there exist AI systems that can perform 8 of the 10 tasks below by the end of 2027, as determined by our panel of judges, Gary will donate $2,000 to a charity of Miles’ choice;…”
“most of the experts in the field think that sometime, within probably the next 20 years, we’re going to develop AIs that are smarter than people.”
“I think it could come as early as 2026, though there are also ways it could take much longer.”
“It is possible that we will have superintelligence in a few thousand days (!); it may take longer, but I’m confident we’ll get there.”
“So 2029, both for human-level intelligence and for artificial general intelligence (AGI) – which is a little bit different.”
“Artificial intelligence that is 10,000 times smarter than humans will be here in 10 years, SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son said on Friday in a rare public appearance.”
“Son said this tech is likely to be one to 10 times smarter than humans and will arrive in the next three-to-five years, earlier than he had anticipated.”
“I make the following claim: it is strikingly plausible that by 2027, models will be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer.”
“If you define AGI as smarter than the smartest human, I think it’s probably next year, within two years”
“My guess is we’ll have AI smarter than any one human probably around the end of next year”
“If we specified AGI to be something very specific, a set of tests where a software program can do very well — or maybe 8% better than most people — I believe we will get there with…”
“I do not believe human-level AI (artificial superintelligence, or the commonest sense of #AGI) is close at hand. AI has made breakthroughs, but the claim of AGI by 2030 is as laugh…”
“Goertzel suggested 2029 or 2030 could be the likeliest years when humanity will build the first AGI agent, but that it could happen as early as 2027.”
“However, the chance of all human occupations becoming fully automatable was forecast to reach 10% by 2037, and 50% as late as 2116”
“If science continues undisrupted, the chance of unaided machines outperforming humans in every possible task was estimated at 10% by 2027, and 50% by 2047.”
“If science continues undisrupted, the chance of unaided machines outperforming humans in every possible task was estimated at 10% by 2027, and 50% by 2047.”
“we estimate the likelihood of transformative artificial general intelligence (AGI) by 2043 and find it to be <1%.”
“By 2029 no computer – or "machine intelligence" – will have passed the Turing Test.”
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