OpenPrediction
AI will do well on any specified test set ("AGI") within 5 years
“If we specified AGI to be something very specific, a set of tests where a software program can do very well — or maybe 8% better than most people — I believe we will get there within 5 years”
Context: Nvidia GTC 2024 press Q&A, as reported by TechCrunch (Mar 19, 2024). Examples: bar exam, logic tests, economic tests, pre-med exams.
How we judge it
Our interpretation: by 19 Mar 2029, AI systems score better than most humans on essentially any standardized human test (professional, academic and logic exams).
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 892 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 2 of 3 (dated, some interpretation)
