What do AI predictions and promises mean for your work? Pick an industry or role to see the claims tracked on SiPoly that bear on it: which came true, which are still open and when they are due, and which did not happen. Every claim links to its verbatim quote, source and verdict.
What changes for Software?
Claims about AI writing, reviewing and maintaining code, and about how the work of software developers will change.
On SiPoly: 4 claims came true (fully or partly), 17 are open, 5 did not come true.
Came true (4)
- Correct Mid-2025: specialized coding and research agents begin to transform their professions
- Kept Apple Intelligence in more languages (Chinese, French, German, Japanese…) starting in April 2025
- Kept Gemini Ultra to developers and enterprises "early next year"
- Kept EO 14110: frontier-model developers must report to the government within 90 days
Still open, with deadline (17)
- Open Most code for Meta's AI efforts written by AI within 12 to 18 months
- Open "At least 3-5 years away from automating software engineering" (from Mar 2024)
- Open Claude-written code expected to be strictly better than human-written code within the year
- Open AI "world-class mathematicians" within a year, world-class programmers within one or two (Jul 2025)
- Open "There will be no programmers in five years"
- Open About a 50% chance that AI companies automate the whole AI research process by end of 2028
- Open 33% of enterprise software apps will include agentic AI by 2028; 15% of daily work decisions autonomous
- Open AI will do well on any specified test set ("AGI") within 5 years
- Open In five years there will be more software engineers than today, not fewer
- Pending Binding regulation on the most powerful AI model developers
- Open AI systems improving their own code in ~5 years; 80-90% of expert ability in every field in 6-8 years
- Open Median 2029 for full coding automation (as of Feb 2026)
- Open Median 2030 for full coding automation (AI Futures Model)
- Open By 2030 AI will autonomously fix issues, implement features and solve hard scientific programming problems
- Open By 2030 many scientific fields will have AI assistants comparable to today's coding assistants
- Open "GPT 2030" will likely be superhuman at coding, hacking and math
- Open Within a decade, AI agents will independently do many software tasks that take humans days or weeks
Did not come true (5)
- Wrong "In one year, the vast majority of programmers will be replaced by AI programmers"
- Wrong At least six Indian developers will build foundation models within 8-10 months
- Wrong "Probably in 2025" an AI that can be a mid-level engineer
- Wrong AI writing 90% of code in three to six months
- Broken at deadline Recall on Copilot+ PCs in preview starting June 18, 2024
“Came true” and “did not” are our verdicts on each claim as worded (a forecast with a stated probability is graded on its probability). Claims are matched to sectors by keyword rules and editors’ review, so a claim can appear under several sectors. These are other people’s claims; SiPoly makes no forecast of its own. Methodology