OpenPrediction
In five years there will be more software engineers than today, not fewer
“Sure. In five years, there will be more software engineers than there are today, not fewer.”
Context: Dwarkesh Podcast (Jun 11, 2024), replying to "Let's say all remote jobs are automated in the next five years."
How we judge it
Our interpretation: correct if US employment of software developers/engineers (BLS OES/CPS) in mid-2029 is above its 2024 level.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 977 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 3 of 3 (precise and measurable)
