OpenPrediction
Most white-collar tasks automated within 12 to 18 months
“said in an interview with the Financial Times that he predicts most, if not every, task in white-collar fields will be automated by AI within the next year or year and a half.”
Jobs & economy
41 claims
OpenPrediction
2025 will be seen as the year of "peak bubble" for generative AI
“2025 will be known as the year of the peak bubble , and also the moment at which Wall Street began to lose confidence in generative AI.”
OpenPrediction
"In five years" unemployment levels never seen before: "Not talking about 10% … but 99%"
“In five years, we’re looking at levels of unemployment we’ve never seen before”
OpenPrediction
Over 40% of agentic AI projects canceled by end of 2027
“Over 40% of agentic AI projects will be canceled by the end of 2027, due to escalating costs, unclear business value or inadequate risk controls”
OpenPrediction
AI could wipe out half of entry-level white-collar jobs and push unemployment to 10-20% within 1-5 years
“AI could wipe out half of all entry-level white-collar jobs — and spike unemployment to 10-20% in the next one to five years, Amodei told us in an interview from his San Francisco…”
OpenPrediction
No halving of US labor-force participation and no 15% GDP growth year by 2029
“I don't expect the US labor force participation rate to fall by more than 50% from its current level by 2029, or for US GDP growth to surpass 15% for any year in 2025-2029.”
OpenPrediction
Most code for Meta's AI efforts written by AI within 12 to 18 months
“I would guess that sometime in the next 12 to 18 months, we'll reach the point where most of the code that's going toward these efforts is written by AI.”
OpenPrediction
A 10,000-person anti-AI protest in Washington, DC by late 2026
“Many people fear that the next wave of AIs will come for their jobs; there is a 10,000 person anti-AI protest in DC.”
OpenPrediction
The stock market will be up 30% in 2026, led by AI companies
“The stock market has gone up 30% in 2026, led by OpenBrain, Nvidia, and whichever companies have most successfully integrated AI assistants.”
OpenPrediction
Only about 30% chance of full remote-work automation within 10 years
“I still think full automation of remote work in 10 years is plausible, because it’s what we would predict if we straightforwardly extrapolate current rates of revenue growth and as…”
WrongPrediction
AI writing 90% of code in three to six months
“I think we’ll be there in three to six months—where AI is writing 90 percent of the code.”
OpenPrediction
75% chance of AGI (replacing the majority of human jobs) by end of 2028
“p(AGI by eoy 2028) = 75%”
OpenPrediction
40% chance of AGI (replacing the majority of human jobs) by end of 2026
“p(AGI by eoy 2026) = 40%”
CorrectPrediction
20% chance of AGI (replacing the majority of human jobs) by end of 2025
“p(AGI by eoy 2025) = 20%”
OpenPrediction
Within a decade AI makes great medical advice and tutoring "free, commonplace"
“with AI, over the next decade, that will become free, commonplace — great medical advice, great tutoring”
OpenPrediction
"Probably in 2025" an AI that can be a mid-level engineer
“Probably in 2025, we at Meta, as well as the other companies that are basically working on this, are going to have an AI that can effectively be a sort of mid-level engineer that y…”
Unresolvable / too vaguePrediction
AI agents may "join the workforce" in 2025
“We believe that, in 2025, we may see the first AI agents “join the workforce” and materially change the output of companies.”
CorrectPrediction
Less than 10% of the workforce replaced by AI in 2025
“Less than 10% of the work force will be replaced by AI. Probably less than 5%.”
CorrectPrediction
Few if any radiologists replaced by AI in 2025
“Few if any radiologists will be replaced by AI (contra Hinton’s infamous 2016 prediction).”
OpenPrediction
Data-center AI accelerator market to reach $500 billion by 2028
“Looking ahead, we see the data center AI accelerator market growing to $500 billion by 2028.”
OpenPrediction
In five years there will be more software engineers than today, not fewer
“Sure. In five years, there will be more software engineers than there are today, not fewer.”
OpenPrediction
Individual training clusters costing hundreds of billions of dollars by 2028
“We’re on the path to individual training clusters costing $100s of billions by 2028—clusters requiring power equivalent to a small/medium US state and more expensive than the Inter…”
OpenPrediction
AI will displace social drinking within five years
“Prediction: AI will displace social drinking within 5 years”
OpenPrediction
"At least 3-5 years away from automating software engineering" (from Mar 2024)
“We are at least 3-5 years away from automating software engineering.”
OpenPrediction
10% chance all human occupations are fully automatable by 2037 (50% by 2116)
“However, the chance of all human occupations becoming fully automatable was forecast to reach 10% by 2037, and 50% as late as 2116”
OpenPrediction
"There will be no programmers in five years"
“There will be no programmers in five years.”
OpenPrediction
30% of IBM back-office roles replaced over five years
“I could easily see 30% of that getting replaced by AI and automation over a five-year period.”
OpenPrediction
Generative AI could raise global GDP by 7% over ten years
“they could drive a 7% (or almost $7 trillion) increase in global GDP and lift productivity growth by 1.5 percentage points over a 10-year period.”
CorrectPrediction
45% that Robin Hanson wins his bet that GPT revenue stays under $1B
“35. GPT Revenue (Hanson Wins Bet that GPT Revenue < $1B) 45% 0% 0.90 6”
WrongPrediction
53.5% that Robin Hanson wins his bet that GPT revenue stays under $1B
“35. GPT Revenue (Hanson Wins Bet that GPT Revenue < $1B) 53.5% 0% 1.07 32”
WithdrawnPrediction
Cruise robotaxis: potential for $50 billion in annual revenue by end of decade
“With Cruise, GM has a market-leading position in autonomous services with the potential to deliver $50 billion in revenue annually by the end of the decade.”
OpenPrediction
Long Bet: AI will not lift US productivity growth above 1.8%/yr in the 2020s
“Will robots and AI bring a new revival comparable to the post-1995 digital revival? A reason for doubt is that a doubling of the U.S. stock of robots in the past decade failed to r…”
OpenPrediction
Long Bet: US productivity growth will average over 1.8%/yr in 2020-2029
“Private Nonfarm business productivity growth will average over 1.8 percent per year from the first quarter (Q1) of 2020 to the last quarter of 2029 (Q4).”
OpenPrediction
AI will displace about 40% of the world's jobs within 15 years
“all together in 15 years, that's going to displace about 40% of the jobs in the world.”
CorrectPrediction
10%: 5% of US truck drivers replaced by self-driving trucks by 2023
“At least 5% of US truck drivers have been replaced by self-driving trucks: 10%”
OpenPrediction
AI will outperform humans at working as a surgeon by 2053 (median)
“Researchers predict AI will outperform humans in many activities in the next ten years, such as translating languages (by 2024), writing high-school essays (by 2026), driving a tru…”
OpenPrediction
AI will write a bestselling book by 2049 (median)
“Researchers predict AI will outperform humans in many activities in the next ten years, such as translating languages (by 2024), writing high-school essays (by 2026), driving a tru…”
OpenPrediction
AI will outperform humans at working in retail by 2031 (median)
“Researchers predict AI will outperform humans in many activities in the next ten years, such as translating languages (by 2024), writing high-school essays (by 2026), driving a tru…”
OpenPrediction
AI will outperform humans at driving a truck by 2027 (median)
“Researchers predict AI will outperform humans in many activities in the next ten years, such as translating languages (by 2024), writing high-school essays (by 2026), driving a tru…”
OpenPrediction
AI will outperform humans at writing high-school essays by 2026 (median)
“Researchers predict AI will outperform humans in many activities in the next ten years, such as translating languages (by 2024), writing high-school essays (by 2026), driving a tru…”
WrongPrediction
Deep learning to do "a lot better than radiologists" within five years
“People should stop training radiologists now. It’s just completely obvious that within five years, deep learning is going to do a lot better than radiologists”
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