OpenPrediction
No halving of US labor-force participation and no 15% GDP growth year by 2029
“I don't expect the US labor force participation rate to fall by more than 50% from its current level by 2029, or for US GDP growth to surpass 15% for any year in 2025-2029.”
Context: Post on X operationalising his view of the AI 2027 scenario.
How we judge it
Our interpretation: correct if through 2029 the US labor force participation rate never falls below half its May 2025 level (~62.4%) and no calendar year 2025-2029 has real US GDP growth above 15%.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 1180 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 3 of 3 (precise and measurable)
