OpenPrediction
AI will displace about 40% of the world's jobs within 15 years
“all together in 15 years, that's going to displace about 40% of the jobs in the world.”
Context: CBS 60 Minutes interview with Scott Pelley (Jan 2019). He later said the 40% might take "15 or 25 years".
How we judge it
Our interpretation: by Jan 2034, roughly 40% of jobs worldwide have been displaced by AI and automation (eliminated or replaced, not just changed).
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 2653 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 2 of 3 (dated, some interpretation)
