OpenPrediction
Generative AI could raise global GDP by 7% over ten years
“they could drive a 7% (or almost $7 trillion) increase in global GDP and lift productivity growth by 1.5 percentage points over a 10-year period.”
Context: Goldman Sachs Research note by Joseph Briggs and Devesh Kodnani (Apr 5, 2023).
How we judge it
Our interpretation: by 2033, US/global productivity growth runs about 1.5 percentage points above its pre-2023 trend, as estimated by mainstream sources. Hedged ("could").
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 2641 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 2 of 3 (dated, some interpretation)
