OpenPrediction
Only about 30% chance of full remote-work automation within 10 years
“I still think full automation of remote work in 10 years is plausible, because it’s what we would predict if we straightforwardly extrapolate current rates of revenue growth and assume no slowdown. However, I would only give this outcome around 30% chance.”
Context: Epoch AI Gradient Updates, "The case for multi-decade AI timelines" (Apr 2025). His median is about 20 years.
How we judge it
Our interpretation: YES if, by Apr 2035, AI can do essentially all remote (computer-based) jobs at or below human cost.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 3126 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- 30%
- Specificity
- 2 of 3 (dated, some interpretation)
