OpenPrediction
AI will outperform humans at working in retail by 2031 (median)
“Researchers predict AI will outperform humans in many activities in the next ten years, such as translating languages (by 2024), writing high-school essays (by 2026), driving a truck (by 2027), working in retail (by 2031), writing a bestselling book (by 2049), and working as a surgeon (by 2053).”
Context: Survey of 352 researchers who published at NIPS/ICML 2015, run in 2016 (Grace et al., arXiv 1705.08807, May 2017). Years are aggregate medians (50% chance).
How we judge it
Our interpretation: by end-2031, AI/robotic systems can do the full job of a retail salesperson at least as well as humans (deployed beyond pilots).
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 1910 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 2 of 3 (dated, some interpretation)
