Organization
ML researchers (2016 expert survey)
Aggregate forecasts of 352 machine-learning researchers, Grace et al., "When Will AI Exceed Human Performance?" (AI Impacts / Oxford, 2017)
- Score
- —
- 95% interval
- —
- Resolved
- 0
- Record (C–P–W)
- 0–0–0
- Open
- 5
- Too vague
- 0
Not ranked yet: leaderboards need at least 5 resolved claims (has 0). Score = specificity-weighted average of claim points; we grade claims, not people.
Calibration
No resolved claims with a stated probability yet, so there is nothing to calibrate. Calibration needs forecasts like “70% chance of X”.
Track record
Open (5)
AI will outperform humans at working as a surgeon by 2053 (median)
“Researchers predict AI will outperform humans in many activities in the next ten years, such as translating languages (by 2024), writing high-school essays (by 2026), driving a tru…”
AI will write a bestselling book by 2049 (median)
“Researchers predict AI will outperform humans in many activities in the next ten years, such as translating languages (by 2024), writing high-school essays (by 2026), driving a tru…”
AI will outperform humans at working in retail by 2031 (median)
“Researchers predict AI will outperform humans in many activities in the next ten years, such as translating languages (by 2024), writing high-school essays (by 2026), driving a tru…”
AI will outperform humans at driving a truck by 2027 (median)
“Researchers predict AI will outperform humans in many activities in the next ten years, such as translating languages (by 2024), writing high-school essays (by 2026), driving a tru…”
AI will outperform humans at writing high-school essays by 2026 (median)
“Researchers predict AI will outperform humans in many activities in the next ten years, such as translating languages (by 2024), writing high-school essays (by 2026), driving a tru…”
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