OpenPrediction
Long Bet: US productivity growth will average over 1.8%/yr in 2020-2029
“Private Nonfarm business productivity growth will average over 1.8 percent per year from the first quarter (Q1) of 2020 to the last quarter of 2029 (Q4).”
Context: Long Bet #868 against Robert Gordon (2021). Brynjolfsson argues that AI and other digital technologies will bring a productivity boom.
How we judge it
Our interpretation: as in the bet terms, BLS private nonfarm business labor productivity grows at an average above 1.8%/yr from 2020Q1 to 2029Q4.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 1269 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 3 of 3 (precise and measurable)
