OpenPrediction
Most code for Meta's AI efforts written by AI within 12 to 18 months
“I would guess that sometime in the next 12 to 18 months, we'll reach the point where most of the code that's going toward these efforts is written by AI.”
Context: Dwarkesh Podcast interview transcript. "These efforts" = Meta's Llama/AI research coding agents.
How we judge it
Our interpretation: by 29 Oct 2026, Meta states (or credible reporting shows) that most code for its AI-model efforts is AI-written, beyond autocomplete.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 21 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 2 of 3 (dated, some interpretation)
