CorrectPrediction
45% that Robin Hanson wins his bet that GPT revenue stays under $1B
“35. GPT Revenue (Hanson Wins Bet that GPT Revenue < $1B) 45% 0% 0.90 6”
Context: Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament (XPT), June-Oct 2022; group median forecasts as reported by the Forecasting Research Institute in "Assessing Near-Term Accuracy in the XPT" (2025).
How we judge it
Our interpretation: YES if Hanson wins his bet that GPT revenue stays below $1B (per the XPT question).
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Verdict
- Correct ()
- Stated probability
- 45%
- Specificity
- 3 of 3 (precise and measurable)
- Score
- Brier 0.203 → 0.80 points
Evidence & grader’s note
At 45% on an outcome that did not happen, the forecast leaned the right way. Brier-based score about 0.80.
