OpenPrediction
Transformative economic and societal impacts of AI will take decades
“we think that transformative economic and societal impacts will be slow (on the timescale of decades)”
Context: "AI as Normal Technology", Arvind Narayanan and Sayash Kapoor (Knight First Amendment Institute, Apr 15, 2025).
How we judge it
Our interpretation: correct if by 15 Apr 2035 there has been no economy-wide AI transformation (e.g. no decade of US labor-productivity growth above 3%/yr, no AI-driven unemployment shock above 10%).
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 3108 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 1 of 3 (vague or hedged)
- What changes for
- Everyone
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