WrongPrediction
AI writing 90% of code in three to six months
“I think we’ll be there in three to six months—where AI is writing 90 percent of the code.”
Context: Council on Foreign Relations CEO Speaker Series transcript.
How we judge it
Our interpretation: by 10 Sep 2025, credible industry-wide measures show AI producing ~90% of code written by professional developers (not only at one company).
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Verdict
- Wrong ()
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 2 of 3 (dated, some interpretation)
- Score
- 0.0 points × weight 2
Evidence & grader’s note
- LessWrong "2025 in AI predictions" evaluation (Jan 2026)
- Business Insider (via Yahoo): Amodei says Claude writes 90% of code for most Anthropic teams (Oct 2025)
- Moneycontrol: Pichai says over 30% of Google's new code is AI-generated (Apr 2025)
- CNBC: Nadella says as much as 30% of Microsoft code is written by AI (Apr 29, 2025)
Some companies report high internal shares of AI-written code (Anthropic said in Oct 2025 that AI writes 90% of the code for most of its teams; Google and Microsoft reported about 30% in Apr 2025). We found no evidence that AI wrote 90% of code industry-wide by Sep 2025.
