- Score
- 0%
- 95% interval
- 0%–79%
- Resolved
- 1
- Record (C–P–W)
- 0–0–1
- Open
- 2
- Too vague
- 0
Not ranked yet: leaderboards need at least 5 resolved claims (has 1). Score = specificity-weighted average of claim points; we grade claims, not people.
Calibration
No resolved claims with a stated probability yet, so there is nothing to calibrate. Calibration needs forecasts like “70% chance of X”.
Track record
Resolved (1)
WrongPrediction
AI writing 90% of code in three to six months
“I think we’ll be there in three to six months—where AI is writing 90 percent of the code.”
Open (2)
OpenPrediction
AI could wipe out half of entry-level white-collar jobs and push unemployment to 10-20% within 1-5 years
“AI could wipe out half of all entry-level white-collar jobs — and spike unemployment to 10-20% in the next one to five years, Amodei told us in an interview from his San Francisco…”
OpenPrediction
Powerful AI "could come as early as 2026"
“I think it could come as early as 2026, though there are also ways it could take much longer.”
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