By end of 2024: modest lasting corporate adoption and modest profits split 7-10 ways
“Modest lasting corporate adoption • Modest profits, split 7-10 ways”
Context: From the same seven-item list on X (Mar 10, 2024). Quoted here are the final three bullets: modest adoption and profits.
How we judge it
Our interpretation: correct if in 2024 enterprise adoption of generative AI stayed modest (mostly pilots) and model-maker profits were small or negative and spread across many firms.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Verdict
- Correct ()
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 1 of 3 (vague or hedged)
- Score
- 1.0 points × weight 1
Evidence & grader’s note
- LessWrong "2024 in AI predictions": the list is "approximately correct regarding non-agent models"
- Gary Marcus on X grading himself 7/7 (Dec 30, 2024)
OpenAI and Anthropic ran large losses in 2024, and surveys showed most enterprise genAI still in pilots. The third-party evaluation calls the list approximately correct.
Evidence timeline
Dated entries from the claim’s own record (statement, verdict, later developments) and sourced entries added by editors. Each links to its source; none changes the verdict.
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