AI "world-class mathematicians" within a year, world-class programmers within one or two (Jul 2025)
“So, it's likely in my opinion that you're going to see world-class mathematicians emerge in the next one year that are AI based and world-class programmers that going to appear within the next one or two years.”
Context: Eric Schmidt on Moonshots with Peter Diamandis ("What Artificial Superintelligence Will Actually Look Like", video published 17 Jul 2025). Wording from the official video's auto-captions.
How we judge it
Our interpretation: correct if by 17 Jul 2026 an AI system is recognized by leading mathematicians as doing world-class research mathematics (e.g. original results accepted in top journals) AND by 17 Jul 2027 AI systems perform at world-class level in programming competitions and real-world engineering; partly if only one half holds.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 279 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 2 of 3 (dated, some interpretation)
- What changes for
- Software Research & science
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