- Score
- 0%
- 95% interval
- 0%–79%
- Resolved
- 1
- Record (C–P–W)
- 0–0–1
- Open
- 2
- Too vague
- 0
Not ranked yet: leaderboards need at least 5 resolved claims (has 1). Score = specificity-weighted average of claim points; we grade claims, not people.
Calibration
No resolved claims with a stated probability yet, so there is nothing to calibrate. Calibration needs forecasts like “70% chance of X”.
Track record
Resolved (1)
"In one year, the vast majority of programmers will be replaced by AI programmers"
“We believe, as an industry, that in one year, the vast majority of programmers will be replaced by AI programmers”
Open (2)
AI "world-class mathematicians" within a year, world-class programmers within one or two (Jul 2025)
“So, it's likely in my opinion that you're going to see world-class mathematicians emerge in the next one year that are AI based and world-class programmers that going to appear wit…”
AI systems improving their own code in ~5 years; 80-90% of expert ability in every field in 6-8 years
“In the industry it is believed that somewhere around five years, no one knows exactly, the systems will begin to be able to write their own code, that is, they literally will take…”
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