AI systems improving their own code in ~5 years; 80-90% of expert ability in every field in 6-8 years
“In the industry it is believed that somewhere around five years, no one knows exactly, the systems will begin to be able to write their own code, that is, they literally will take their code and make it better.”
Context: Eric Schmidt at the FII8 "Board of Changemakers" panel (FII Institute; video published 29 Oct 2024). Wording from the official video's auto-captions. He added that within 6 to 8 years, "so 2030 right after that maybe 2032", a single system could have 80 or 90% of the ability of the expert in every field.
How we judge it
Our interpretation: correct if by 31 Oct 2029 frontier AI systems are documented (by a lab or independent evaluators) as substantially improving their own code or training process, i.e. recursive self-improvement in practice.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 1116 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 2 of 3 (dated, some interpretation)
- What changes for
- Software
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