What do AI predictions and promises mean for your work? Pick an industry or role to see the claims tracked on SiPoly that bear on it: which came true, which are still open and when they are due, and which did not happen. Every claim links to its verbatim quote, source and verdict.
What changes for Manufacturing & robotics?
Claims about robots, humanoids and automation in factories, warehouses and homes.
On SiPoly: 4 claims came true (fully or partly), 12 are open, 6 did not come true, 1 could not be graded.
Came true (4)
- Correct 2025: humanoid hype, but nothing "remotely as capable as Rosie the Robot"
- Correct Lab demo of a robot doing the "last 10 yards" of package delivery: not before 2025
- Correct Lab demo of a robot that can navigate almost any US home: not before 2026
- Kept Zoox to start public robotaxi rides in Las Vegas later in 2025
Still open, with deadline (12)
- Open Home humanoid robots "all demo and very little product" in 2026
- Pending Owners able to add their cars to the Tesla robotaxi fleet in 2026, "confidently next year"
- Pending Optimus "production design 2" to launch in 2026
- Open 2027 may see robots that can do tasks in the real world
- Open Deployed "last 10 yards" delivery robots: not before 2028
- Open Multi-task physical-assistance robot for the elderly: not before 2028
- Open Dexterous robot hands generally available: not before 2030 (hopefully by 2040)
- Open Home-navigating robot as an expensive product: not before 2030
- Open Long Bet: AI will not lift US productivity growth above 1.8%/yr in the 2020s
- Open Affordable home-navigating robot: not before 2035
- Open Humanoid dexterity "will remain pathetic" compared to human hands through 2035
- Open A robot as intelligent, attentive and faithful as a dog: not before 2048
Did not come true (6)
- Broken Apollo Go robotaxis in 65 cities by 2025 (100 by 2030)
- Broken at deadline Optimus 3 production to start "at the beginning of next year" (2026)
- Broken Tesla robotaxi in "eight to ten metro areas" by end of 2025
- Broken "Several thousand" Optimus robots built in 2025
- Broken Fully driverless public robotaxi service with Lyft in Las Vegas in 2023
- Wrong "Over a million robotaxis on the road" in 2020
“Came true” and “did not” are our verdicts on each claim as worded (a forecast with a stated probability is graded on its probability). Claims are matched to sectors by keyword rules and editors’ review, so a claim can appear under several sectors. These are other people’s claims; SiPoly makes no forecast of its own. Methodology