OpenPrediction
Home humanoid robots "all demo and very little product" in 2026
“Human domestic robots like Optimus and Figure will be all demo and very little product.”
How we judge it
Our interpretation: fewer than ~10,000 general-purpose humanoid robots delivered to private homes worldwide in 2026.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 84 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 2 of 3 (dated, some interpretation)
