Humanoid dexterity "will remain pathetic" compared to human hands through 2035
“Humanoid Robots . Deployable dexterity will remain pathetic compared to human hands beyond 2036. Without new types of mechanical systems walking humanoids will remain too unsafe to be in close proximity to real humans.”
Context: One of five ten-year technology predictions Brooks posted on 26 Mar 2025 (Bluesky), restated in his Jan 2026 scorecard; they cover 2026-2035.
How we judge it
Our interpretation: correct if on 1 Jan 2036 no deployed humanoid robot has hand dexterity broadly comparable to human hands, and walking humanoids are not working in close proximity to people at scale.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 3369 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 1 of 3 (vague or hedged)
- What changes for
- Manufacturing & robotics
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