OpenPrediction
Home-navigating robot as an expensive product: not before 2030
“A robot that can navigate around just about any US home, with its steps, its clutter, its narrow pathways between furniture, etc. Lab demo: NET 2026 Expensive product: NET 2030”
Context: From Brooks's dated predictions table first published 1 Jan 2018 ("My Dated Predictions"). NET = "no earlier than" (correct if it has not happened before that year); BY = "by that year".
How we judge it
Our interpretation: correct if no robot able to navigate almost any US home (steps, clutter, narrow paths) is sold as a product, at any price, before 1 Jan 2030.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 1180 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 2 of 3 (dated, some interpretation)
