What do AI predictions and promises mean for your work? Pick an industry or role to see the claims tracked on SiPoly that bear on it: which came true, which are still open and when they are due, and which did not happen. Every claim links to its verbatim quote, source and verdict.
What changes for Healthcare?
Claims about AI in medicine: diagnosis and imaging, drug discovery and clinical trials, and care for patients and the elderly.
On SiPoly: 1 claims came true (fully or partly), 8 are open, 2 did not come true.
Came true (1)
Still open, with deadline (8)
- Pending First clinical trials of its AI-designed drugs by end of 2026
- Open Multi-task physical-assistance robot for the elderly: not before 2028
- Open 1.6% of recently approved drug sales in 2027 will come from AI-discovered drugs (5% by 2030)
- Open Few if any drugs approved by 2030 will have benefited from today's AI tools
- Open "GPT 2030" will likely be superhuman at coding, hacking and math
- Open ~30% of physics, materials science and medicine papers will engage AI by 2030 (from 3% in 2022)
- Open Within a decade AI makes great medical advice and tutoring "free, commonplace"
- Open AI will outperform humans at working as a surgeon by 2053 (median)
Did not come true (2)
“Came true” and “did not” are our verdicts on each claim as worded (a forecast with a stated probability is graded on its probability). Claims are matched to sectors by keyword rules and editors’ review, so a claim can appear under several sectors. These are other people’s claims; SiPoly makes no forecast of its own. Methodology