OpenPrediction
~30% of physics, materials science and medicine papers will engage AI by 2030 (from 3% in 2022)
“Experts predict a 10x increase (from 3% to ~30%) in AI-engaged papers in Physics, 10 Materials Science, 11 and Medicine, 12 between 2022 and 2030.”
Context: FRI LEAP Wave 2 (Nov 2025), median expert; the numbers in the quote are footnote markers. Field medians were 20%, 20% and 24%.
How we judge it
Our interpretation: correct if the Duede et al.-style measure of AI-engaged papers reaches roughly 20-30% in these fields in 2030.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 1909 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 3 of 3 (precise and measurable)
