OpenPrediction
Median 2030 for full coding automation (AI Futures Model)
“With my parameters, it predicts a median of 2030 for full coding automation”
Context: Post on X launching the AI Futures Model; Lifland is a co-author of AI 2027. He notes he adjusts this to get all-things-considered views.
How we judge it
Our interpretation: by 31 Dec 2030, AI can fully automate the coding work of top AI-company engineers (the AI 2027 "superhuman coder" milestone).
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 1545 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- 50%
- Specificity
- 2 of 3 (dated, some interpretation)
