OpenPrediction
Median 2029 for full coding automation (as of Feb 2026)
“Mid-2028 is earlier than Daniel’s current median prediction for full coding automation (2029), but the 2-year takeoff to superintelligence is slower than his median takeoff speed of ~1 year.”
Context: Stated by co-author Eli Lifland in the AI Futures Project post "Grading AI 2027's 2025 Predictions" (Feb 2026). It reflects an update from AI 2027's 2027 modal year.
How we judge it
Our interpretation: YES if by end-2029 AI can fully automate coding (do any coding task the best AGI-company engineer does, faster and cheaper).
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 1180 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- 50%
- Specificity
- 2 of 3 (dated, some interpretation)
