OpenPrediction
A system that learns as well as a human, then becomes superhuman: "5 to 20" years
“I think like 5 to 20.”
Context: Dwarkesh Podcast (Nov 25, 2025). Asked for his forecast for "this system … which can learn as well as a human and subsequently, as a result, become superhuman"; Patel: "5 to 20 years?"
How we judge it
Our interpretation: correct if such a system arrives between Nov 2030 and Nov 2045; wrong if before Nov 2030 or not by Nov 2045.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 6987 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 1 of 3 (vague or hedged)
