OpenPrediction
50% chance machines outperform humans at every task by 2047
“If science continues undisrupted, the chance of unaided machines outperforming humans in every possible task was estimated at 10% by 2027, and 50% by 2047.”
Context: Survey of 2,778 researchers who published at top AI venues, fielded Oct 2023 (Grace et al., "Thousands of AI Authors on the Future of AI", arXiv 2401.02843, Jan 2024). Aggregate forecasts, "if science continues undisrupted". 13 years earlier than the 2022 survey.
How we judge it
Our interpretation: YES if by end-2047 unaided AI systems can do every task better and more cheaply than human workers.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 7754 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- 50%
- Specificity
- 2 of 3 (dated, some interpretation)
