AGI "likely to emerge in the next four years" (from Oct 2024)
“the birth of artificial general intelligence, or A.G.I., which is likely to emerge in the next four years”
Context: Thomas L. Friedman, "A Harris Presidency Is the Only Way to Stay Ahead of A.I." (The New York Times opinion, 29 Oct 2024). He describes A.G.I. as "polymathic" AI that has "simultaneously mastered physics, chemistry, biology … better than any human ever could".
How we judge it
Our interpretation: correct if by 29 Oct 2028 an AI system is broadly recognized by independent experts as AGI (matching or beating humans across most cognitive work); a developer's own claim does not count on its own.
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Due in 749 days
- Verdict
- Open
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 2 of 3 (dated, some interpretation)
- What changes for
- Everyone
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