Unresolvable / too vaguePrediction
Superintelligence possible "in a few thousand days"
“It is possible that we will have superintelligence in a few thousand days (!); it may take longer, but I’m confident we’ll get there.”
Context: Essay "The Intelligence Age".
How we judge it
No operational definition or date given ("possible", "may take longer").
Resolution criteria are our interpretation of the claim, written before grading. Methodology
- Said
- Resolve by
- Verdict
- Unresolvable / too vague
- Stated probability
- None stated
- Specificity
- 1 of 3 (vague or hedged)
- Score
- Not scored (too vague)
Evidence & grader’s note
Listed for the record. No defined test and an open-ended window; not scored.
